769 
FPUS03 KMHX 041805
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
104 PM EST MON NOV 4 1996

THINK GENERALLY CLR SKIES (SOME CI) WL LAST INTO LATE AFT/EARLY EVE
WITH RAPID TEMP DROP INTO 40S AFT SUNSET. CI WL OVRSPRD REG LTR ON.
CLDS JUST OFFSHR ALSO HAV A GD CHC TO MOV ONSHR OVN AS SFC-5K FT WNDS
QUITE FAVORABLE. OFTEN TIMES WITH GD VORT GOING BY TO OUR NW AS IS
THE CASE LATE TNT CLDS OFFSHR WL BE DRAWN INLAND AHEAD OF VORT.
GRIDDED DATA FRM ETA VRY EMPHATIC ON THIS SCENARIO AND NGM GRIDDED
DATA ALSO INDICATES GD THETA-E ADV LTR TNT WITH INCR LO LVL MOIST.
WORDING COULD BE BEC P/C MANY SPOTS. AFT RAPID TEMP DROP THIS EVE
THINGS WL STEADY OUT AND FWC/FAN NOT TOO BAD. NOT WORRIED ABT
FROST/FREEZE ANYMORE. FWC NOT INDICATING MUCH POPS FOR TUE BUT
WORRIED ABT A FEW -SHRA ARND AS WK LIFT FRM NEWD MOVG VORT HITS BTR
LO LVL MOIST OVR HERE. AVN POPS VRY HIGH AND MAYBE COMPROMISE IS
BEST WITH 20/30% CHC SHWR AND P/C SKIES...ITS UP TO YOU DEPENDING ON
HOW STRNG YOU FEEL. LGT ONSHR FLOW PERSISTS INTO WED BUT UPP LVL
FORCING WK SO P/C WL PROB WORK WITH LO 70S.

CWF: NO FLAGS. MDLS HAV THEIR SUBTLE DIFFS BEC ETA STRNGST WITH CSTL
TROF...WL COMPROMISE. SPDS ARND 15KT/3FT SEAS.

.MHX...NONE.
GATES