National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
FPUS03 KMLB 010848
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EST FRI MAR 1 1996

IMPRESSED WITH THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER NRN CWA (WHICH IS WHAT
SOME AREAS BADLY NEED) AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR TRW A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. CURRENTLY...FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR VRB AS THEIR
WINDS HAVE GONE FROM N TO LIGHT W.  LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS... KMLB VWP SHOWS THE AMASS ON COOL SIDE OF FRONT TO
BE EXTREMELY SHALLOW...AND IR SATPIX AND OBS FROM MLB/VRB SHOW LOW
CLOUD DECK ERODING OVER SRN CWA SO SEEMS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE
NORTH OF MLB BY MID-MORNING AND UP TO MCO-TTS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MCONV/AND UVM ARE QUITE HIGH INVOF FRONT AND PROGGED LI'S
SOUTH OF FRONT DROP TO ABOUT -2. AS 50H TEMPS IN THE -10/-13 RANGE 
80H WINDS INC TO 40 KT OVER ECFL BY 24H IN RESPONSE TO DVLPMNT OF
WAVE AT SFC/80H. FIRST IN A SERIES OF SRN STREAM VORTMAXES TO MOVE
ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

NEEDLESS TO SAY THAT POPS WILL HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED IN CURRENT
PACKAGE. WOULD SUGGEST LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FAR NORTH...TRENDING TO
GOOD CHANCE/SCATTERED TO THE SOUTH. POPS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH FOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. OVERALL I THINK AN
NGM/AVN BLEND ON TEMPS/POPS SHOULD DO.


CRISTALDI