000 
FPUS03 KGSP 010729
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG, SC
230 AM EST FRI MAR 1 1996

RAH/CAE/FFC: CUT POPS. RAISE TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
             (SOUTH/EAST).

BIG MODEL DISCREPANCIES/LACK OF CONTINUITY...RESULTING IN SURFACE
LOW THAT TRACKS SOMEWHERE OFF COAST. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT
FAVORED FOR THE AREA...HOWEVER THICKNESS/850 TEMPERATURES AND MEAN
RH SUPPORT SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT QUITE A BIT ABOVE THE FORECAST...AND NEW
FWC/FAN NUMBERS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR TODAY. ERL SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT
COLDER AIR...BUT LESS PRECIPITATION WITH LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
VARIOUS THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT ALL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
36 HOURS...SNOW ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE AT 12 HOURS CHANGING TO A MIX
AND THEN LIQUID BY 24 HOURS EXCEPT NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS WHERE A MIX
MAY PERSIST. AT 36 ETA WOULD SUPPORT CHANGING BACK TO SNOW EXCEPT IN
SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS...WHILE THE WARMER NGM WOULD SUPPORT ALL RAIN
EXCEPT MOUNTAINS (AVN WOULD BACK THIS UP). PREFER LOW POPS...ENDING
EVENT LATE SATURDAY. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS. COULD USE FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW MOUNTAINS WHICH ARE FURTHEST REMOVED FROM DYNAMICS AND
BEST MOISTURE.
 
AVL  34/26/34  330<<<FLURRIES EARLY SATURDAY
CLT  43/34/43