000 
FPUS03 KGLD 192019
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 PM MDT (319 PM CDT) WED JUL 19 1995

DISCUSSION...

....MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
    POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER...

THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. ENHANCING THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS A SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE CWA. THIS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS. NGM A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ETA
ON THIS FEATURE...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLUTION. ETA
MODEL DID SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN NGM WITH POSITION AND STRENGTH OF SFC
TROF SO WILL USE A COMBINATION OF THE TWO.

BEST SFC MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE LOCATED OVER WESTERN KS AHEAD OF
THE SFC TROF. DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE 60S OVER THE CWA...BUT IN THE
MID 60S EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. WITH THE SFC TROF SHOWING
LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT...ONCE THE FRONT CATCHES UP THINGS WILL
REALLY GET GOING OVER THE KS AND NEBR SECTIONS OF THE REGION.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES RUNNING IN THE 2400-2800 J/KG RANGE
THUS ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE. WITH IMPROVING DYNAMICS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE AND WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AND TROF...EXPECT SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NGM INITIALIZED AT 850 MB THE BEST WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN THE ETA. THESE TWO MODELS SWITCH ROLES
BY 12H WITH THE NGM WARMER THAN ETA. DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. EASTERN SECTIONS TO CONTINUE WITH
THE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. BUT WILL CUT
SLIGHTLY UNDER FWC TEMPERATURES OUT WEST.

GLD  059/085  4-   HLC  065/084  41
CBK  061/085  4-   MCK  062/084  41
TRB  062/086  3-   5C0  057/084  4-

TURNER