National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
FPUS03 KMLB 210701
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 AM EDT THU JUL 21 1994

LINE OF TRW FROM FLL NNE TO 75 E OF DAB WITH OTHER SCT RW E OF THE
CAPE. AS ADVERTISED EARLY YDAY MODELS THE MOISTURE HAS INDEED RETURNED
TO THE AREA WITH PW'S OF 2" IN CSTL SOUNDINGS AT 00Z. MOISTURE ALSO
SHOWING UP VERY WELL ON SAT PIXS. MODELS KEEP MOISTURE AROUND DURING
FCST PD. MODEL X-SCTS AND T-SCTS ALL AGREE WITH WK S STEERING FLOW
WHICH MEANS THE EAST CST C BRZ WILL HANG CLOSE TO THE CST TODAY
ESPECIALLY FROM MLB NORTHWARD. WITH PLENTY OF PWAT AND SLOW STORM
MOTION HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AND WILL MENTION IN FCST AND
IN ECFL ATO. BY 3RD PD MINOR DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH BL FLOW AS NGM
BRINGS WESTERLIES DOWN INTO FA. THIS IS A REASONALBLE SOLUTON GIVEN
BREADTH OF MID LAT TROUGH MOVG SLOWLY ACROSS MID SECTION OF US.
HOWEVER ETA AND AVC DISAGREE BY KEEPING WK S FLW AND WILL FOLLOW THIS
SOLUTION. 

GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS
ENTIRE FA SO WILL GROUP ALL ZONES INTO ONE FCST. LOOKING AT STP OF 88D
FOR YDAY LOOKS LIKE 70-80% OF FA GOT SOME R. ATTM WILL GO WITH
GUIDANCE (60%) BUT IF 12UTC SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED GOOD MSTR THEN
POPS COULD PROBABLY BE BUMPED UP EVEN MORE.

IN ADDITION...IF CBRZ DOES HANG ALONG CST AND MSTR AND WIND PROFILES
VERIFY THAN POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT...AS PER
MLB LOCAL STUDY. 

@1...VOLUSIA LAKE ORANGE SEMINOLE OSCEOLA OKEECHOBEE BREVARD INDIAN   
     RIVER ST LUCIE MARTIN

MLB...NONE

SJH