Scattered Thursday afternoon showers did not add up to whole lot with most of the state staying dry. The IEM estimated areal-averaged precipitation total for Iowa this May will come in over in inch below average with only meager amounts expected through Saturday. Does a dry May portend a dry June? The featured chart looks into this comparing the same statewide monthly totals during those two months for a given year. A simple linear fit is shown with a slight positive trend, but little confidence with the correlation. The quadrant percentages would seem to indicate that having both months drier than average is the most common combination, but the contributing distributions are not normal with the larger tail on the heavier precipitation side skewing the average higher and thus more years in the below average classification. It is sort of interesting to note that the four wettest Junes were associated with below average Mays.

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