On Saturday, the Storm Prediction Center issued a Day 3 Moderate Risk of severe weather over much of Iowa for Monday (today). The severe weather threat for Monday has long been advertised by weather forecast models and human forecasters alike. Such high risks three days out are somewhat rare and the subject of today's daily feature. The map shows a rasterized count of day 3 moderate risk polygons. Only a few of these events have happened previously before with the last one for Iowa being 14 years ago on 10 April 2011. While the environment is very conducive to dangerous severe weather today, a number of so called "failure modes" exist that could limit storm development over much of Iowa. These include warm air aloft called a "cap" and the lack of surface front feature to focus storm development. The threat is still quite significant given the environmental parameters favorable for severe weather, so let us hope that bad storms do not develop today!

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