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175 
FXUS62 KRAH 120702
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front extending from southeastern Virginia across the North 
Carolina Piedmont into upstate SC will linger across the area 
through today before washing out on Friday. A Bermuda high 
pressure system will build west into the region through early next 
week, bringing warm and humid conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

* Scattered storms possible, mainly across southern areas during the 
  afternoon and evening, with weakening convection lifting northeast 
  across the area overnight. 

The surface boundary that has been lingering across the region the 
past few days is expected to dissipate today. As that happens upper 
level ridge will move off the coast and a deepening  trough over the 
Southern Plains will bring another plume of moist southwesterly flow 
to the region mid to late morning. Showers with scattered storms 
will begin to initialize in the early afternoon across the south and 
quickly spread north through the afternoon and evening hours. While 
most of the convection is expected to be sub-severe a few stronger 
storms could develop in the late afternoon and evening hours 
especially across the south where instability is highest. Isolated 
to scattered showers are expected to linger overnight through Friday 
morning. 

High temperatures  will be in the upper 80s to near 90 with heat 
indices in the low to mid 90s south and east of Triad. It will feel 
muggy out again tonight as dew points will remain in the low 70s 
across much of the region. Lows will be in the low 70s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Wednesday...

Will be updated soon. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday... 

* Chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms 
  increase later in the week into early next week. 
* Humidity values increase with surface dew points reaching the 
  lower 70s at times producing max heat index values in the 90s and 
  moderate heat risk across southern and eastern areas over the 
  weekend into early next week. 

A Bermuda high pressure system will extend into the southeastern 
U.S. over the weekend into early next week resulting in a general 
southwesterly low-level flow. There are indications of some 
weak surface troughing may develop in the lee of the mountains 
across VA into northern NC late in the weekend into early next 
week. Further aloft, ridging across the Southeast and FL combined 
with forms and episodes of troughing across the Midwest and Great 
Lakes will result in deep feed of warm moist air into the region. 
PW values will increase to 1.75 to 2.25 inches late Friday into 
Sunday which is about 150-175% of normal before values decrease  
early next week. While the main westerlies will be well removed to 
our north, there will be episodes of some weak disturbances dropping 
into the region from the northwest over the weekend into early next 
week. 

The result will be an active pattern featuring largely diurnally 
driven showers and thunderstorms across central NC. It's worth 
noting that the pattern supports limited predictability on the 
details of the timing of storms for each day outside of diurnal 
heating. The best storm chances should occur during the Friday 
through Monday period with PoPs of 50-70%. Rather weak low and mid 
level flow will limit the threat of organized and severe weather 
but the deep moisture and potential for multiple days with storms 
may result in an isolated flooding threat.

Highs will average 1 to 5 degrees above average and range in the mid 
80s to around 90. There are signs of some slightly cooler highs on 
Tuesday across the north. With a southwesterly flow it will be humid 
with dew points mainly ranging in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This 
will keep overnight lows elevated, generally 5 to 10 degrees above 
average with lows mainly in the lower 70s with a few upper 60s in 
the Triad and near the VA border and mid 70s across southeastern 
areas. The combination of the heat and humidity will result in max 
heat index values in the 90s and a moderate heat risk across 
southern and eastern areas over the weekend into early next 
week. The widespread cloudiness and risk of storms should keep 
highs down enough to avoid widespread 90s and major heat risk 
values. -Blaes

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 AM Thursday... 

VFR conditions across the region through the next few hours.  Latest 
model guidance and recent trends are showing patchy fog forming 
across the area. This patchy fog could potentially bring MVFR and 
possibly IFR conditions across the eastern 3 TAF sites early this 
morning until it lifts shortly after the sunrises. Have TEMPO groups 
generally from 08z-12z for reduced visibilities and lowered 
ceilings. Winds will play a major role in the timing and coverage as 
is the winds stay a little bit higher at RDU, I would not expect 
fog/ low stratus to develop there. The consistency of nearly calm 
winds at RWI and FAY gives higher confidence for reduced 
visibilities and lower ceilings. After the sunrises, all sites will 
be VFR for much of the day. In the afternoon and evening hours the 
chance for thunderstorms return especially at the eastern TAF sites. 

Outlook: Daily shower/thunderstorm chances, along with early morning 
sub-VFR fog, are expected through the weekend into early next week. 
Best chances for showers/storms appears to be Fri into the weekend 
with less coverage into early next week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

...Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th 
through 18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office 
in Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update 
to our Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) 
computer system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate 
weather and water information, and to send life-saving 
information, such as weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive 
and requires that the system be taken completely offline for 
approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th 
through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that 
time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate 
products for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our 
backup offices at NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core 
services of forecast products and weather watches, warnings 
and advisories are expected during this period. 

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only 
from AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio 
  transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air 
  during most of the AWIPS update:

Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
Ellerbe	(WNG 597 - 162.400 Mhz)
Garner	(WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Climate: Data will be updated in a limited fashion from Monday
  afternoon, June 16th through Wednesday, June 18th. Climate
  graphs for the Raleigh Forecast Area at 
  https://www.weather.gov/rah/climatePlots will not be updated. 

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at 
www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated. 

* The Weather Story available at 
https://www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated. 

* Water level forecast services will be degraded due to a less 
frequent update cycle. Forecasts will remain at 
https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/rah through this period. 

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS 
is offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating 
via social media, and performing other functions that can be 
completed without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions 
to Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...CA
EQUIPMENT...RAH