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465 FXUS62 KRAH 121359 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1000 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front extending from southeastern Virginia across the North Carolina Piedmont into upstate SC will linger across the area through today before washing out on Friday. A Bermuda high pressure system will build west into the region through early next week, bringing warm and humid conditions. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 100 AM Thursday... No major changes to the going forecast through tonight. We are still expecting scattered showers and storms to form upstream in SC tied to a weak disturbance. These storms are favored in the guidance to reach the southern Piedmont and southern Coastal Plain to Sandhills area later this afternoon and evening, though picking out where the storms ultimately develop is uncertain with lack of large-scale forcing. For what it is worth, the 12Z HRRR is later to develop convection, not until early evening and with limited coverage relative to the other HREF members. Will take a closer look once the 12z suite of data comes in, but for now still a good chance of storms, especially over the southern Piedmont. The previous discussion follows below. As of 300 AM Thursday... * Scattered storms possible, mainly across southern areas during the afternoon and evening, with weakening convection lifting northeast across the area overnight. The surface boundary that has been lingering across the region the past few days is expected to dissipate today. As that happens upper level ridge will move off the coast and a deepening trough over the Southern Plains will bring another plume of moist southwesterly flow to the region mid to late morning. Showers with scattered storms will begin to initialize in the early afternoon across the south and quickly spread north through the afternoon and evening hours. While most of the convection is expected to be sub-severe a few stronger storms could develop in the late afternoon and evening hours especially across the south where instability is highest. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to linger overnight through Friday morning. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90 with heat indices in the low to mid 90s south and east of Triad. It will feel muggy out again tonight as dew points will remain in the low 70s across much of the region. Lows will be in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Thursday... * Unsettled continues with increasing coverage showers and storms An upper ridge will set up over Florida and the Southeast coast by Friday, while a weak cutoff low drifts over the Arklatex region, putting most of the Deep South and Southeast in warm and moisture return flow around a Bermuda high. Overall forcing for accent will be weak and CAPE may be hindered by multilayer cloud cover, but weak capping and the influx of moisture will support scattered to numerous showers and storms, either from ongoing from Thursday night or initiating fairly early on Friday. Confidence in favored areas of central NC for the best coverage of storms is low, but there is some signal that the southern Piedmont/Sandhills may be favored. While model guidance does not indicate significantly high QPF overall, PW is forecast to increase from around 1 inch today to as much as 2-25 inches on Friday, which combined with nearly unidirectional weak flows and weak MBE velocities may support isolated flooding concerns. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 AM Thursday... * Chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms increase through early next week. Isolated flooding may become a concern after multiple days of rainfall. * Humidity values increase with surface dew points reaching the lower 70s at times producing max heat index values in the 90s and moderate heat risk across southern and eastern areas over the weekend into early next week. Upper ridging over the Southeast and the Bermuda high will persist into the weekend before a shortwave emanating from a weak cutoff low over the Arklatex region today approaches the region Sunday and Monday. The mean frontal zone will set up over the Mid-Atlantic States, which is where models tend to favor higher QPF during the period. However, PW is forecast to rise to more than 200% of normal over the weekend, supporting off and on periods of scattered to numerous showers and storms each day, most likely peaking in the afternoon and evening given no discernible focus in the form of a boundary or clear upper level support outside of the aforementioned upper trough, which is forecast to shear out as it approaches Sunday/Monday. Thus, confidence is low in the coverage and timing of rounds of precip. Ample cloud cover should also generally keep temperatures near or perhaps even slightly below normal and keep heat indices below 100. That said it will be rather humid for multiple days and the Heat Risk is forecast to reach Moderate in the coastal plain through Monday. With the passage of the shortwave Monday, things may tend to dry out a bit toward the middle of next week, though with no airmass change, which could lead to higher Heat Risk and heat indices exceeding 100 in some southern and eastern counties. The overall pattern is forecast to remain mostly zonal, with shortwave moving through the flow and inherent uncertainty in daily convection. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 610 AM Thursday... A few sites across the far NE Piedmont as well as in the Coastal Plain are reporting some LIFR conditions with patchy dense fog. These conditions are expected to lift with the issuance of the 12z TAF. Foggy conditions are expected to lift across the region in the next hour or 2 thus not included in the 12z TAF. Light to calm SW winds today as the lingering boundary across the region diminishes. All sites are expected to be VFR for most of the day. The chance for sub-VFR conditions will come with the afternoon/ early evening chance of shower and thunderstorms. With the storms expected to begin in the south/southwest region, have restrictions starting as early as 18z at FAY then expanding north through the afternoon/early evening. Convection is expected to be isolated to scattered through the evening hours. Although the stronger storms are expected to diminish lingering showers will continue through the night and into Friday morning, resulting in Sub-VFR conditions. By Friday morning, if precip has stopped expect another round of patchy fog and low stratus. Models are leaning towards precip sticking around and increasing again Friday morning. Outlook: Daily shower/thunderstorm chances, along with early morning sub-VFR fog, are expected through the weekend into early next week. Best chances for showers/storms appears to be Fri into the weekend with less coverage into early next week. && .EQUIPMENT... ...Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th through 18th... The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office in Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update to our Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) computer system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate weather and water information, and to send life-saving information, such as weather and water warnings, to the public. AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive and requires that the system be taken completely offline for approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate products for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup offices at NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are expected during this period. A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only from AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely: * NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air during most of the AWIPS update: Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz) Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz) Ellerbe (WNG 597 - 162.400 Mhz) Garner (WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz) Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz) Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz) Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz) * Climate: Data will be updated in a limited fashion from Monday afternoon, June 16th through Wednesday, June 18th. Climate graphs for the Raleigh Forecast Area at https://www.weather.gov/rah/climatePlots will not be updated. * Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated. * The Weather Story available at https://www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated. * Water level forecast services will be degraded due to a less frequent update cycle. Forecasts will remain at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/rah through this period. * NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS is offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating via social media, and performing other functions that can be completed without AWIPS. We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions to Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...Kren/CA SHORT TERM...BLS LONG TERM...BLS AVIATION...CA EQUIPMENT...RAH