175 FXUS62 KRAH 120702 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 300 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front extending from southeastern Virginia across the North Carolina Piedmont into upstate SC will linger across the area through today before washing out on Friday. A Bermuda high pressure system will build west into the region through early next week, bringing warm and humid conditions. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday... * Scattered storms possible, mainly across southern areas during the afternoon and evening, with weakening convection lifting northeast across the area overnight. The surface boundary that has been lingering across the region the past few days is expected to dissipate today. As that happens upper level ridge will move off the coast and a deepening trough over the Southern Plains will bring another plume of moist southwesterly flow to the region mid to late morning. Showers with scattered storms will begin to initialize in the early afternoon across the south and quickly spread north through the afternoon and evening hours. While most of the convection is expected to be sub-severe a few stronger storms could develop in the late afternoon and evening hours especially across the south where instability is highest. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to linger overnight through Friday morning. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90 with heat indices in the low to mid 90s south and east of Triad. It will feel muggy out again tonight as dew points will remain in the low 70s across much of the region. Lows will be in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 PM Wednesday... Will be updated soon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 225 PM Tuesday... * Chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms increase later in the week into early next week. * Humidity values increase with surface dew points reaching the lower 70s at times producing max heat index values in the 90s and moderate heat risk across southern and eastern areas over the weekend into early next week. A Bermuda high pressure system will extend into the southeastern U.S. over the weekend into early next week resulting in a general southwesterly low-level flow. There are indications of some weak surface troughing may develop in the lee of the mountains across VA into northern NC late in the weekend into early next week. Further aloft, ridging across the Southeast and FL combined with forms and episodes of troughing across the Midwest and Great Lakes will result in deep feed of warm moist air into the region. PW values will increase to 1.75 to 2.25 inches late Friday into Sunday which is about 150-175% of normal before values decrease early next week. While the main westerlies will be well removed to our north, there will be episodes of some weak disturbances dropping into the region from the northwest over the weekend into early next week. The result will be an active pattern featuring largely diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms across central NC. It's worth noting that the pattern supports limited predictability on the details of the timing of storms for each day outside of diurnal heating. The best storm chances should occur during the Friday through Monday period with PoPs of 50-70%. Rather weak low and mid level flow will limit the threat of organized and severe weather but the deep moisture and potential for multiple days with storms may result in an isolated flooding threat. Highs will average 1 to 5 degrees above average and range in the mid 80s to around 90. There are signs of some slightly cooler highs on Tuesday across the north. With a southwesterly flow it will be humid with dew points mainly ranging in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will keep overnight lows elevated, generally 5 to 10 degrees above average with lows mainly in the lower 70s with a few upper 60s in the Triad and near the VA border and mid 70s across southeastern areas. The combination of the heat and humidity will result in max heat index values in the 90s and a moderate heat risk across southern and eastern areas over the weekend into early next week. The widespread cloudiness and risk of storms should keep highs down enough to avoid widespread 90s and major heat risk values. -Blaes && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 140 AM Thursday... VFR conditions across the region through the next few hours. Latest model guidance and recent trends are showing patchy fog forming across the area. This patchy fog could potentially bring MVFR and possibly IFR conditions across the eastern 3 TAF sites early this morning until it lifts shortly after the sunrises. Have TEMPO groups generally from 08z-12z for reduced visibilities and lowered ceilings. Winds will play a major role in the timing and coverage as is the winds stay a little bit higher at RDU, I would not expect fog/ low stratus to develop there. The consistency of nearly calm winds at RWI and FAY gives higher confidence for reduced visibilities and lower ceilings. After the sunrises, all sites will be VFR for much of the day. In the afternoon and evening hours the chance for thunderstorms return especially at the eastern TAF sites. Outlook: Daily shower/thunderstorm chances, along with early morning sub-VFR fog, are expected through the weekend into early next week. Best chances for showers/storms appears to be Fri into the weekend with less coverage into early next week. && .EQUIPMENT... ...Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th through 18th... The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office in Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update to our Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) computer system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate weather and water information, and to send life-saving information, such as weather and water warnings, to the public. AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive and requires that the system be taken completely offline for approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate products for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup offices at NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are expected during this period. A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only from AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely: * NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air during most of the AWIPS update: Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz) Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz) Ellerbe (WNG 597 - 162.400 Mhz) Garner (WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz) Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz) Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz) Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz) * Climate: Data will be updated in a limited fashion from Monday afternoon, June 16th through Wednesday, June 18th. Climate graphs for the Raleigh Forecast Area at https://www.weather.gov/rah/climatePlots will not be updated. * Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated. * The Weather Story available at https://www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated. * Water level forecast services will be degraded due to a less frequent update cycle. Forecasts will remain at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/rah through this period. * NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS is offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating via social media, and performing other functions that can be completed without AWIPS. We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions to Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...CA SHORT TERM...Blaes LONG TERM...Blaes AVIATION...CA EQUIPMENT...RAH