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193 
FGUS73 KIWX 152158
ESFIWX


Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
458 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 day Probabilistic
Forecast...

This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations in the
Maumee River basin in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio and for
the Upper Wabash River basin in northern Indiana. In the table
below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the chance the
river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in the next
90 days.

For example, the Maumee River at Fort Wayne, Indiana has a flood
stage of 17 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance
the river will rise to or above 19.1 feet.

Bluffton, Indiana on the Wabash River has a flood stage of 10 feet. 
In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the river will rise
to or above 10.0 feet.


 Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
 ...Valid February 15 2024 - M     ... 

Maumee River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)    95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Saint Joseph River Ohio
Montpelier OH     12.0     8.1  8.9 10.6 11.6 13.0 13.6 14.5
Newville IN       12.0     8.4  9.3 11.1 12.1 12.9 14.2 15.3
St. Joe Ft W. IN  12.0     2.8  4.2  6.4  8.8 10.3 14.6 16.9


Saint Marys River
Decatur IN        17.0    10.2 11.0 12.8 14.0 16.8 19.0 20.0
Muldoon Bridge IN 14.0     6.0  6.6  7.6  9.0 10.6 14.4 15.0


Maumee River
Fort Wayne IN     17.0     6.7  8.8 11.2 13.9 16.8 19.1 20.8
Defiance OH       10.0     2.6  3.8  5.0  5.5  7.0  8.8  9.7
Napoleon OH       12.0     4.1  5.8  7.6  8.8 10.9 13.1 14.1


Tiffin River
Stryker OH        11.0     9.7 11.0 12.3 13.3 14.1 15.4 16.0


Blanchard River
Ottawa OH         23.0    14.8 16.2 18.3 21.0 22.0 24.1 25.5


Auglaize River
Fort Jennings OH  13.0     4.3  4.8  6.9 10.5 12.4 14.8 16.5
Defiance OH       21.0     9.3 10.8 12.3 14.3 16.6 19.2 20.2


Upper Wabash River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)    95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Wabash River
Linn Grove IN     11.0     8.3  9.0 10.0 10.6 12.1 13.9 14.8
Bluffton IN       10.0     5.2  5.6  7.1  7.8 10.0 11.7 12.9
Wabash IN         14.0     8.4  9.0  9.8 11.0 12.4 13.6 15.5
Logansport IN     15.0     6.2  6.9  7.4  8.3  9.1 10.3 11.6


Tippecanoe River
Ora IN            12.0     8.3  8.9  9.7 11.1 12.2 13.4 13.7
Winamac IN        10.0     6.2  6.6  7.4  8.5  9.6 11.1 11.4


Mississinewa River
Marion IN         12.0     4.2  4.7  5.1  6.2  7.2  9.1  9.3


Salamonie River
Portland IN       11.0     5.2  5.6  6.5  7.8  8.7  9.9 15.0
Warren IN         12.0     8.3  8.7  9.1  9.7 10.4 11.6 12.0


Eel River
N. Manchester IN  11.0     6.5  7.3  8.5 10.2 11.9 13.3 16.7


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more
years of climatological data including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete
range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with long
range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic
forecasts are a part of NOAA National Weather Services Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on
AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes.

...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions...

Snow cover and river ice are virtually absent due to the warmest 10 day start to February in addition to a very mild winter. Soil moisture was near to a little below for locations in the Maumee River basin in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio and for the Upper Wabash River basin in northern Indiana.


...Weather Outlook...
The generally mild pattern is expected to persist into March with best chances for below normal precipitation. Best chances are for near normal rainfall from March through May.


...River Conditions...
As of Thursday afternoon, February 15th, all rivers were below action stage 
for locations in the Maumee River basin in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio and for the Upper Wabash River basin in northern Indiana.


...Overall Flood Risk...
Overall flood risk is below normal through May.


...Flood Terminology...
The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.

The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of 
secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to
save property.

The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation
and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of 
people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary 
roads.

The next long-range probabilistic outlook will be issued Thursday afternoon
February 29th for the Upper Wabash and Maumee River Basins.


$$
Skipper

728 
FGUS73 KIWX 152219 CCA
ESFIWX

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook...Corrected
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
458 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 day Probabilistic
Forecast...

This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations in the
Maumee River basin in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio and for
the Upper Wabash River basin in northern Indiana. In the table
below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the chance the
river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in the next
90 days.

For example, the Maumee River at Fort Wayne, Indiana has a flood
stage of 17 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance
the river will rise to or above 19.1 feet.

Bluffton, Indiana on the Wabash River has a flood stage of 10 feet. 
In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the river will rise
to or above 10.0 feet.


 Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
 ...Valid February 15 2024 - March 15, 2024... 

Maumee River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)    95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Saint Joseph River Ohio
Montpelier OH     12.0     8.1  8.9 10.6 11.6 13.0 13.6 14.5
Newville IN       12.0     8.4  9.3 11.1 12.1 12.9 14.2 15.3
St. Joe Ft W. IN  12.0     2.8  4.2  6.4  8.8 10.3 14.6 16.9


Saint Marys River
Decatur IN        17.0    10.2 11.0 12.8 14.0 16.8 19.0 20.0
Muldoon Bridge IN 14.0     6.0  6.6  7.6  9.0 10.6 14.4 15.0


Maumee River
Fort Wayne IN     17.0     6.7  8.8 11.2 13.9 16.8 19.1 20.8
Defiance OH       10.0     2.6  3.8  5.0  5.5  7.0  8.8  9.7
Napoleon OH       12.0     4.1  5.8  7.6  8.8 10.9 13.1 14.1


Tiffin River
Stryker OH        11.0     9.7 11.0 12.3 13.3 14.1 15.4 16.0


Blanchard River
Ottawa OH         23.0    14.8 16.2 18.3 21.0 22.0 24.1 25.5


Auglaize River
Fort Jennings OH  13.0     4.3  4.8  6.9 10.5 12.4 14.8 16.5
Defiance OH       21.0     9.3 10.8 12.3 14.3 16.6 19.2 20.2


Upper Wabash River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)    95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Wabash River
Linn Grove IN     11.0     8.3  9.0 10.0 10.6 12.1 13.9 14.8
Bluffton IN       10.0     5.2  5.6  7.1  7.8 10.0 11.7 12.9
Wabash IN         14.0     8.4  9.0  9.8 11.0 12.4 13.6 15.5
Logansport IN     15.0     6.2  6.9  7.4  8.3  9.1 10.3 11.6


Tippecanoe River
Ora IN            12.0     8.3  8.9  9.7 11.1 12.2 13.4 13.7
Winamac IN        10.0     6.2  6.6  7.4  8.5  9.6 11.1 11.4


Mississinewa River
Marion IN         12.0     4.2  4.7  5.1  6.2  7.2  9.1  9.3


Salamonie River
Portland IN       11.0     5.2  5.6  6.5  7.8  8.7  9.9 15.0
Warren IN         12.0     8.3  8.7  9.1  9.7 10.4 11.6 12.0


Eel River
N. Manchester IN  11.0     6.5  7.3  8.5 10.2 11.9 13.3 16.7


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that 
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years 
of climatological data including current conditions of the river, 
soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of 
temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete range of 
probabilities, the level of risk associated with long range planning 
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are a 
part of NOAA National Weather Services Advanced Hydrologic 
Prediction Service.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on
AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes.

...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions...

Snow cover and river ice are virtually absent due to the warmest 10 
day start to February in addition to a very mild winter. Soil 
moisture was near to a little below for locations in the Maumee 
River basin in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio and for the 
Upper Wabash River basin in northern Indiana.  


...Weather Outlook... 

The generally mild pattern is expected to persist into March with 
best chances for below normal precipitation. Best chances are for 
near normal rainfall from March through May. 


...River Conditions... 

As of Thursday afternoon, February 15th, all rivers were below 
action stage for locations in the Maumee River basin in northeast 
Indiana and northwest Ohio and for the Upper Wabash River basin in 
northern Indiana.


...Overall Flood Risk...
Overall flood risk is below normal through May.


...Flood Terminology...
The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.

The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of 
secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to
save property.

The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation
and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of 
people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary 
roads.

The next long-range probabilistic outlook will be issued Thursday 
afternoon February 29th for the Upper Wabash and Maumee River Basins.


$$
Skipper