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Displaying AFOS PIL: ESFIWX Received: 2024-02-15 21:58 UTC
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193 FGUS73 KIWX 152158 ESFIWX Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Northern Indiana 458 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 day Probabilistic Forecast... This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations in the Maumee River basin in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio and for the Upper Wabash River basin in northern Indiana. In the table below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. For example, the Maumee River at Fort Wayne, Indiana has a flood stage of 17 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance the river will rise to or above 19.1 feet. Bluffton, Indiana on the Wabash River has a flood stage of 10 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the river will rise to or above 10.0 feet. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations ...Valid February 15 2024 - M ... Maumee River Basin... Location FS(ft) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% Saint Joseph River Ohio Montpelier OH 12.0 8.1 8.9 10.6 11.6 13.0 13.6 14.5 Newville IN 12.0 8.4 9.3 11.1 12.1 12.9 14.2 15.3 St. Joe Ft W. IN 12.0 2.8 4.2 6.4 8.8 10.3 14.6 16.9 Saint Marys River Decatur IN 17.0 10.2 11.0 12.8 14.0 16.8 19.0 20.0 Muldoon Bridge IN 14.0 6.0 6.6 7.6 9.0 10.6 14.4 15.0 Maumee River Fort Wayne IN 17.0 6.7 8.8 11.2 13.9 16.8 19.1 20.8 Defiance OH 10.0 2.6 3.8 5.0 5.5 7.0 8.8 9.7 Napoleon OH 12.0 4.1 5.8 7.6 8.8 10.9 13.1 14.1 Tiffin River Stryker OH 11.0 9.7 11.0 12.3 13.3 14.1 15.4 16.0 Blanchard River Ottawa OH 23.0 14.8 16.2 18.3 21.0 22.0 24.1 25.5 Auglaize River Fort Jennings OH 13.0 4.3 4.8 6.9 10.5 12.4 14.8 16.5 Defiance OH 21.0 9.3 10.8 12.3 14.3 16.6 19.2 20.2 Upper Wabash River Basin... Location FS(ft) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% Wabash River Linn Grove IN 11.0 8.3 9.0 10.0 10.6 12.1 13.9 14.8 Bluffton IN 10.0 5.2 5.6 7.1 7.8 10.0 11.7 12.9 Wabash IN 14.0 8.4 9.0 9.8 11.0 12.4 13.6 15.5 Logansport IN 15.0 6.2 6.9 7.4 8.3 9.1 10.3 11.6 Tippecanoe River Ora IN 12.0 8.3 8.9 9.7 11.1 12.2 13.4 13.7 Winamac IN 10.0 6.2 6.6 7.4 8.5 9.6 11.1 11.4 Mississinewa River Marion IN 12.0 4.2 4.7 5.1 6.2 7.2 9.1 9.3 Salamonie River Portland IN 11.0 5.2 5.6 6.5 7.8 8.7 9.9 15.0 Warren IN 12.0 8.3 8.7 9.1 9.7 10.4 11.6 12.0 Eel River N. Manchester IN 11.0 6.5 7.3 8.5 10.2 11.9 13.3 16.7 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data including current conditions of the river, soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with long range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are a part of NOAA National Weather Services Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Additional supportive data and explanations are available on AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes. ...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions... Snow cover and river ice are virtually absent due to the warmest 10 day start to February in addition to a very mild winter. Soil moisture was near to a little below for locations in the Maumee River basin in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio and for the Upper Wabash River basin in northern Indiana. ...Weather Outlook... The generally mild pattern is expected to persist into March with best chances for below normal precipitation. Best chances are for near normal rainfall from March through May. ...River Conditions... As of Thursday afternoon, February 15th, all rivers were below action stage for locations in the Maumee River basin in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio and for the Upper Wabash River basin in northern Indiana. ...Overall Flood Risk... Overall flood risk is below normal through May. ...Flood Terminology... The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible. The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to save property. The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary roads. The next long-range probabilistic outlook will be issued Thursday afternoon February 29th for the Upper Wabash and Maumee River Basins. $$ Skipper
728 FGUS73 KIWX 152219 CCA ESFIWX Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook...Corrected National Weather Service Northern Indiana 458 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 day Probabilistic Forecast... This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations in the Maumee River basin in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio and for the Upper Wabash River basin in northern Indiana. In the table below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. For example, the Maumee River at Fort Wayne, Indiana has a flood stage of 17 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance the river will rise to or above 19.1 feet. Bluffton, Indiana on the Wabash River has a flood stage of 10 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the river will rise to or above 10.0 feet. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations ...Valid February 15 2024 - March 15, 2024... Maumee River Basin... Location FS(ft) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% Saint Joseph River Ohio Montpelier OH 12.0 8.1 8.9 10.6 11.6 13.0 13.6 14.5 Newville IN 12.0 8.4 9.3 11.1 12.1 12.9 14.2 15.3 St. Joe Ft W. IN 12.0 2.8 4.2 6.4 8.8 10.3 14.6 16.9 Saint Marys River Decatur IN 17.0 10.2 11.0 12.8 14.0 16.8 19.0 20.0 Muldoon Bridge IN 14.0 6.0 6.6 7.6 9.0 10.6 14.4 15.0 Maumee River Fort Wayne IN 17.0 6.7 8.8 11.2 13.9 16.8 19.1 20.8 Defiance OH 10.0 2.6 3.8 5.0 5.5 7.0 8.8 9.7 Napoleon OH 12.0 4.1 5.8 7.6 8.8 10.9 13.1 14.1 Tiffin River Stryker OH 11.0 9.7 11.0 12.3 13.3 14.1 15.4 16.0 Blanchard River Ottawa OH 23.0 14.8 16.2 18.3 21.0 22.0 24.1 25.5 Auglaize River Fort Jennings OH 13.0 4.3 4.8 6.9 10.5 12.4 14.8 16.5 Defiance OH 21.0 9.3 10.8 12.3 14.3 16.6 19.2 20.2 Upper Wabash River Basin... Location FS(ft) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% Wabash River Linn Grove IN 11.0 8.3 9.0 10.0 10.6 12.1 13.9 14.8 Bluffton IN 10.0 5.2 5.6 7.1 7.8 10.0 11.7 12.9 Wabash IN 14.0 8.4 9.0 9.8 11.0 12.4 13.6 15.5 Logansport IN 15.0 6.2 6.9 7.4 8.3 9.1 10.3 11.6 Tippecanoe River Ora IN 12.0 8.3 8.9 9.7 11.1 12.2 13.4 13.7 Winamac IN 10.0 6.2 6.6 7.4 8.5 9.6 11.1 11.4 Mississinewa River Marion IN 12.0 4.2 4.7 5.1 6.2 7.2 9.1 9.3 Salamonie River Portland IN 11.0 5.2 5.6 6.5 7.8 8.7 9.9 15.0 Warren IN 12.0 8.3 8.7 9.1 9.7 10.4 11.6 12.0 Eel River N. Manchester IN 11.0 6.5 7.3 8.5 10.2 11.9 13.3 16.7 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data including current conditions of the river, soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with long range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are a part of NOAA National Weather Services Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Additional supportive data and explanations are available on AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes. ...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions... Snow cover and river ice are virtually absent due to the warmest 10 day start to February in addition to a very mild winter. Soil moisture was near to a little below for locations in the Maumee River basin in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio and for the Upper Wabash River basin in northern Indiana. ...Weather Outlook... The generally mild pattern is expected to persist into March with best chances for below normal precipitation. Best chances are for near normal rainfall from March through May. ...River Conditions... As of Thursday afternoon, February 15th, all rivers were below action stage for locations in the Maumee River basin in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio and for the Upper Wabash River basin in northern Indiana. ...Overall Flood Risk... Overall flood risk is below normal through May. ...Flood Terminology... The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible. The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to save property. The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary roads. The next long-range probabilistic outlook will be issued Thursday afternoon February 29th for the Upper Wabash and Maumee River Basins. $$ Skipper