166 
FXUS63 KTOP 112251
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
451 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Turning colder Friday through the weekend, with Sunday being
  the coldest day. Lows will be in the single digits Sunday
  morning and highs will only reach into the 20s.

- Low chances (10-20%) for light snow across far northeastern Kansas 
  on Saturday.

- Trending warmer Monday into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Northwest flow aloft prevails this afternoon across the region with 
southwesterly surface winds bumping temperatures into the 40s 
and 50s across the local area, with even some 60s and 70s 
across central and western Kansas! An embedded shortwave in the 
broad northwest flow will push a cold front through the forecast
area overnight. While FROPA will be dry, CAA behind the 
boundary will keep highs on Friday in the mid 30s to low 40s, 
10-15 degrees cooler than today's highs. Another wave dives 
southeast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Saturday, 
shunting a stronger cold front through the area. While the 
majority of guidance keeps precipitation associated with this 
wave north of the forecast area, there are a handful of members 
(10-20% of the GEFS, ENS, and GEPS suites) that bring light snow
into far northeast Kansas. Little to no accumulation is 
expected even if some light snow does work far enough south to 
impact the area. 

Colder air filters in behind the front and highs on Saturday will 
vary from the low 20s near the KS/NE stateline to the mid 30s across 
east-central Kansas. A 1045mb high takes control of the central 
CONUS Saturday night into Sunday, allowing for temperatures to fall 
into the single digits. Winds decrease through the overnight hours 
and will be rather light by sunrise Sunday, but even light winds 
will create wind chills in the single digits below zero. Southerly 
winds do return by Sunday afternoon with plenty of sunshine, but the 
colder airmass holds strong and highs will only reach the 20s Sunday 
afternoon. The surface ridge slides east by Monday with quasi-zonal 
flow taking control through the middle of next week. Temperatures 
warm back into the 50s by Tuesday with dry conditions favored to 
continue.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 451 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

It is unclear how far south a stratus deck makes it behind the
coldfront Friday morning. There is a signal from the models,
especially the 21Z RAP. But the RAP has not been the most consistent.
Probabilities from the NBM for MVFR CIGS are only around 25 percent.
The the HREF does show some better chances for a window of MVFR CIGS
around midday. Will follow the probabilities for now keeping the 
forecast VFR and see how the 00Z guidance comes in. Otherwise 
surface ridging builds in with northerly winds in the 5 to 15KT range
and mid to high level clouds streaming overhead. 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Wolters