National Weather Service Raw Text Product

336 
FXUS62 KTBW 200815
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
415 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Light flow in place across the peninsula this morning beneath a
weakness aloft between ridging centered over the N Gulf Coast and
W Atlantic. A shortwave trough to the north pushing across the E 
Seaboard and inverted trough east of FL extending north from a mid
level low over the SW Bahamas will maintain generally light N/NE
flow aloft over the area today as the low slowly drifts west 
toward the FL Straits. Drier air evident in WV satellite imagery 
and meso-analysis (PW < 1.5 in) just east of the peninsula will 
spread west across parts of the E FL peninsula this afternoon and 
perhaps as far west as parts of interior S/SW FL this evening, 
which may act to limit overall convective development in the late 
afternoon and early evening, however, the rest of the W FL 
peninsula will retain ample moisture (PW 1.9-2.1 in) to support 
scattered showers and storms, initially developing along the coast
this morning followed by more robust development later this 
afternoon into the evening toward the interior as the sea breeze
and convective outflow boundaries collide and interact. Convection
will eventually propagate S/SW through the evening before pushing
offshore and diminishing over land areas overnight. Given the
light flow and resultant relatively slow shower/storm movement,
typical low lying and poor drainage areas may experience some
minor flooding, particularly in light of recent rainfall.

Ridging aloft centered over the N Gulf begins to build and expand
N/E on Saturday while the mid level low currently near the SW 
Bahamas enters the SE Gulf via the FL Straits, with flow between 
the two favoring flow aloft over the peninsula gradually shifting 
to easterly and increasing slightly. A decrease in PW values 
(down to 1.5-1.9 in) as the drier W Atlantic air advects further
across W FL will likely lead to slightly less overall coverage of
showers and storms compared to today, however, sufficient 
moisture will remain in place to support another round of 
scattered convection (50-60% PoPs) for much of the W FL peninsula
given the presence of sea breeze and boundary collisions. 

Ridging aloft strengthens further into Sunday and becomes 
centered over the Mid-Atlantic, favoring deep layer easterly flow
across the state as W Atlantic surface ridging extends west across
the SE U.S. north of the peninsula. PW values decrease further
under this regime across the area for much of next week with rain
chances becoming more dependent on sea breeze and boundary
collisions, while largely focusing over the W FL peninsula and
toward the Gulf Coast as the increased easterly flow restricts the
W FL sea breeze from advancing too far inland. As such, areas away
from the coast will warm a few degrees more during the afternoons,
with high temps in the lower 90s this afternoon rising into the
lower to mid 90s over the weekend, followed by mid to upper 90s
across the interior much of next week. Immediate coastal locations
will remain a few degrees cooler owing to the sea breeze, but
still will likely warm to around 90 or the lower 90s next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Light flow aloft over the peninsula today will favor an early
chance of showers and perhaps a storm during the morning
originating along the coast, followed by shower and storm 
likelihood mid/late afternoon into the evening propagating from
the interior. Convection generally looks to diminish by midnight 
with light NE winds settling across terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Coastal showers and storms likely this morning, before convective
focus shifts ashore during the afternoon, with some convective
outflow and potential associated convection pushing back toward 
the coastal waters late, particularly across the southern waters. 
High pressure builds north of the waters over the weekend into 
next week favoring a return of easterlies over the waters and 
increase in winds and associated seas, likely from 1-2 feet 
through the weekend to around 2 to 3 feet next week. Showers and 
storms likely favored to push offshore in the evenings and early 
overnight with locally higher winds and seas before diminishing. 
No headlines expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Light to variable flow expected today with morning showers and
storms near the coast, followed by development of afternoon and 
evening showers further inland. High pressure builds north of the
area over the weekend with easterly flow returning and persisting
through much of next week, with shower and storm chances focusing
toward W FL and coastal areas during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Drier air works across the peninsula next week with
minimum RH values dropping to near or just below 50 percent for
most areas, however, overall moisture content keep RHs above 
critical thresholds through the period with minimal fire concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  78 /  50  30  50  30 
FMY  92  75  93  75 /  50  40  60  30 
GIF  93  75  94  76 /  70  40  50  10 
SRQ  90  75  92  75 /  50  30  50  30 
BKV  93  72  95  72 /  50  30  50  20 
SPG  89  78  91  78 /  50  30  50  40 

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: 
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Hurt