National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTAE Product Timestamp: 2025-06-16 19:02 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KTAE Products for 16 Jun 2025 View All AFD Products for 16 Jun 2025 View As Image Download As Text
461 FXUS62 KTAE 161902 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 302 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Convection should diminish this evening once again with the loss of daytime heating. For Tuesday, shortwave will located just to the west of the forecast area, with best deep layer convergence across the Panhandle and SE Alabama. Upper ridge will be a bit stronger over the eastern half of the region tomorrow, so will have a bit more of an east/west split in PoPs, with higher PoPs to the west and a bit lower PoPs to the east. Temperatures will reflect this as well, with highs in the upper 80s in the west, and lower 90s in the east. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Wednesday sees slightly lower PWATs begin to filter through the CWA (1.6-1.8" vs. the 2.0-2.2" of late). Without any discernible upper level features to enhance lift and large scale subsidence induced from the subtropical ridge to our northeast, the magnitude of PoPs areawide will lower to more seasonable values. Afternoon thunderstorms will still be possible, though less widespread than previous days with the greatest coverage likely confined to along the seabreeze front. With generally less convective activity to limit temperatures and continued subsidence, afternoon highs will easily climb into the low- mid 90s on Wednesday, with apparent temperatures potentially approaching - or exceeding - triple digits in some locations. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Moister air (PWATs > ~1.8in) begins to advect back into the CWA as early as Thursday morning, elevating PoPs to near/slightly above seasonal values once more. Additionally, current guidance suggests a subtle shortwave impulse will approach from the west by end of week which would act to further increase PoPs, although exact details on how much influence this feature will have is still somewhat murky. High temperatures through the end of the work week will be in the low-mid 90s, with low temperatures in the mid 70s across the region. By the weekend, a strong and sprawling 500mb ridge begins to develop to our north over the east-central CONUS. On one hand, the large scale subsidence associated with this ridge will help limit convective activity, likely keeping PoPs lower than as of late. On the other hand, this will also allow temperatures to freely climb into the mid-upper 90s. Thus, the primary hazard concern with this setup would be the threat of excessive heat, with triple-digit apparent temperatures for most (if not all) locations across the CWA by the weekend. While shower and thunderstorm activity should be limited and significantly more isolated in this setup, gusty winds would be a concern should any storms develop given the likely drier mid-level air present and thus elevated DCAPE values. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 VCTS at all terminals through the afternoon with scattered convection across the region. Inland sites have the best chance for MVFR conditions and perhaps some light fog overnight. This should clear fairly quickly after sunrise in the morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 High pressure over the western Atlantic extending into the Gulf will result in a light south to southwest flow for the next several days, becoming more westerly by the end of the week. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue, especially during the overnight and morning hours each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Widespread wetting rains over the last few days preclude any fire weather concerns. Higher mixing heights due to lower coverage of storms will lead to some high dispersions across SW Georgia and the FL Big Bend on Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Some locally heavy downpours remain possible in afternoon showers and storms. Given the slow motion of storms and some training, some quick ponding of water on roads and minor flooding of low- lying areas is possible. Flash flood guidance is around 2-3 inches in 1 hour or 3-4 inches within 3 hours. Widespread flood concerns are not anticipated. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 91 73 92 / 10 40 0 40 Panama City 78 89 78 90 / 20 40 10 30 Dothan 73 90 72 92 / 10 50 0 30 Albany 73 92 72 93 / 10 40 10 30 Valdosta 73 93 73 94 / 10 30 10 30 Cross City 72 92 72 93 / 10 50 10 30 Apalachicola 78 87 78 88 / 10 30 10 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Camp SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Camp MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Camp HYDROLOGY...Dobbs