National Weather Service Raw Text Product

265 
FXUS62 KTAE 192335
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
735 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A broad mid-level shortwave vorticity maxima is expected to enter
the lower Mississippi valley late Saturday morning, and early
Saturday afternoon. This mid level forcing combined with a
weakening cold front that is expected to slowly eject southward
into central Alabama and Georgia Saturday afternoon will lead to a
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across SE Alabama
and SW Georgia in the late afternoon and early evening. Mid 60s 
dewpoints combined with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s,
and a slight lower of heights across the region will lead to
around 2000 J/Kg of SBCAPE across the region. While instability
will be moderately high for the region, the amount of upper level
shear will be the limiting factor. This will especially be the
case as 0-6km bulk shear is forecast to be around 20-25 knots.
This will keep storm mode as clusters that may lead to outflow
dominant storms through the evening. With the amount of
instability across the region, the potential for hail and damaging
wind gusts will be possible across the aforementioned regions.
Given this threat for severe weather SPC has issued a marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) for portions of SE Alabama and SW Georgia. 

Initially in the morning hours, areas of fog and low stratus will
once again develop across the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and SE
Alabama, which may limit daytime temperatures from reaching the
low 90s as they were initially forecasted the last couple of days.
Due to this, high temperatures were reduced to the upper 80s for
much of the region. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Storms will be diminishing into early Sunday morning with spotty
showers likely continuing into the early hours of Sunday and then
into much of the afternoon Sunday. There's likely to be a lull in
activity overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning as the
region will be between passing upper level systems. The next
system moves through during Sunday afternoon as the main front
begins to pass through.

The main forecast challenge for Sunday will be with temperatures,
and possibly a low-end severe threat. Convection from Saturday
afternoon storms will likely leave a outflow boundary that
lingers. North of this boundary temperatures will be slow to
recover in the afternoon, and it's likely some areas will not warm
up much on the north side of this boundary thanks to cloudy/rainy
conditions and cooler air advecting in from the north. Further
south, away from the boundary, showers/storms will be slower to
arrive so we'll likely see conditions warm up into the mid 70s to
low 80s, with the warmest conditions across the southeast Big
Bend. These warmer conditions, with the stronger wind shear in
place could allow a isolated strong storm to develop in Florida,
but warmer mid-level temperatures are likely to reduce the overall
severe threat compared to what's possible on Saturday.

While conditions are not likely to be this cool on Sunday, some 
guidance does indicate temperatures not warming up much above the 
low 60s across our northwest counties in southeast Alabama due to 
the heavy cloud cover and increase rain chances. For now, forecast
temperatures across southeast Alabama are in the upper 60s, but 
would not be surprised if they're too high. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The front moves through by Monday with quiet and cool conditions 
prevailing through the beginning of the week. High temperatures 
will be in the low to mid 70s as the upper level trough passes 
through. 

Northwesterly flow aloft will lead to no appreciable rain chances
through much of next week. With sunny skies and no significant 
cold air advection in the northwesterly flow, expect a quick warm 
up with temperatures back in the mid to upper 80s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next few hours before low
stratus and fog develops. The most likely locations for fog and
low stratus are ECP and TLH where it appears LIFR conditions are
likely, both vsbys and cigs. Farther north, fog and low stratus
and consequent flight restrictions are more uncertain. For now,
have the possibility of IFR/LIFR restrictions at DHN and VLD and
not at ABY. After 14-15z, we should see an improvement back to
VFR. Scattered TSRA will begin developing around 20-22z near DHN
and ABY, which will continue past the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Mostly benign boating conditions expected through early Sunday. A
frontal system will bring scattered showers and storms to our 
marine waters, mostly on Sunday afternoon. As this front moves 
through a period of elevated winds and seas is likely Sunday
afternoon through Tuesday with some period of cautionary 
conditions possible as winds switch to become out of the north and
northeast. Quieter conditions develop for Wednesday through 
Friday of the upcoming week. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Fog and low stratus will initially develop towards the early 
morning hours across the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and SE Alabama
Saturday morning. This fog and low stratus looks to hang around 
through the late morning hours prior to lifting around noon. Westerly
transport winds will eventually transition to southwesterly through 
the afternoon hours on Saturday, while remaining around 5-10 mph. 
Mixing heights will be highest across SW Georgia where early morning 
fog and stratus is not expected, which will lead to slightly higher 
dispersions across this region. Minimum RH values will drop into the 
mid 40s to low 50s for most interior locations, and upper 70s across
coastal areas. Overall, there are no fire weather concerns on Saturday. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Rain chances begin to increase for Saturday through Sunday night.
The systems will be moving somewhat quickly with rainfall 
accumulations not expected to exceed 1.0 inches, although isolated
higher amounts may be possible.

In addition to the St Marks, Withlacoochee, and Aucilla, 
remaining in flood, the Suwanee has now risen into flood at Rock 
Creek, Luraville, and Branford. Expect possible rises to continue 
down the Suwannee with additional points possibly reaching flood 
in the days ahead.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always 
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they 
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   64  87  67  80 /   0  30  10  60 
Panama City   66  76  67  75 /  10  10  10  60 
Dothan        64  85  64  67 /   0  60  20  70 
Albany        65  85  64  71 /   0  60  30  70 
Valdosta      65  88  67  81 /   0  40  20  60 
Cross City    62  84  65  82 /  10   0   0  30 
Apalachicola  66  74  68  76 /  10   0   0  50 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Saturday for 
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs