National Weather Service Raw Text Product

279 
FXUS64 KSHV 121123
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
623 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

After yesterday's round of heavy rainfall and numerous instances 
of flash flooding, a quick glance at regional radar imagery shows
we are likely in store for a repeat performance today as the next
round of convection is quickly approaching from the west. Expect 
this next round of showers and thunderstorms to likewise produce
additional heavy rainfall and only exacerbate the ongoing flooding 
concerns across the vast majority of the region. Given that PWATs 
continue to hover around 2 inches, very efficient rain production 
should yield another 1-2 inches on average for today across the 
existing Flood Watch area with isolated higher totals possible. 
For this reason, have left the Flood Watch intact with a current 
expiration time of 7 PM this evening and will defer to future 
shifts on any possible extensions/expansions in time and spatial 
area based on how events unfold later today. 

The reason we can't quite rule out pushing the Flood Watch out a
bit later is due to the very slow-moving trough that encompasses 
much of the Southern Plains. As it continues to eject NE toward
the middle Red River Valley and into the Ozarks through the next 
24-36 hours, convection will likely persist across our region even
if rainfall rates/additional amounts gradually begin to drop off 
later tonight into Friday as stronger upper forcing is displaced 
farther NE. Regardless, any additional rainfall beyond what has
already occurred up to this point, will certainly be problematic 
for areas contained within the Flood Watch.  

Additionally, more hydrologic response to the additional rainfall
expected during this short-term period will continue to send our
area lakes and rivers higher and extend future crests out through
this weekend or well beyond that into next week in most cases. So
this is another concern that we will be closely monitoring as we
close out the week on Friday and look ahead to the weekend. 

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

As previous long-term discussions have suggested recently, modest
rain chances are expected to persist through at least the weekend
even as the base of the upper trough axis shifts more to the NE.
That means the trough will still be the dominant player in terms
of the placement of upper-level features with the pattern still
keeping the ridge well to our west. As a result, upward forcing
combined with diurnal instability will promote daily convection  
across the region with the greatest coverage likely occurring
during the afternoon and early evening hours of peak heating.

Fortunately, it appears that additional rainfall amounts through
this weekend will be on the lighter side given the more scattered
variety of convection as compared to the more widespread nature 
of moderate to heavy rainfall we've experienced more recently. 
Convective trends through much of next week should continue favor
slightly less convection overall while temperatures begin to trend
higher and closer to seasonal averages for mid June, owing to the 
upper ridge to our west becoming slightly more influential across
the Southern Plains. 

/19/ 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

For the 12/12Z TAFs, a large area of heavy rainfall with embedded 
thunder is progressing into our east Texas airspace at this hour, 
with impacts imminent at KTYR and KLFK. Similarly to yesterday, this 
complex of storms and heavy rainfall will move north and eastward, 
overspreading the entire ArkLaTex through the course of the day. 
Deterioration to MVFR and IFR CIGs and VIS reflected in prevailing 
groups based on the latest timing estimates, with SHRA and TSRA 
to reflect precip impacts. Southeast winds will continue through 
the night at less than 5 kts, increasing to 5 to 10 kts sustained 
during the day with gusts of up to 20 kts possible. 

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

While any severe thunderstorms should be mostly isolated today, 
spotter assistance may be needed for additional rounds of heavy 
rainfall and flash flooding across the region through early this 
evening.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  71  89  75 / 100  70  60  20 
MLU  88  73  89  73 /  80  60  80  30 
DEQ  77  67  83  69 / 100  60  60  40 
TXK  79  71  87  73 / 100  70  60  40 
ELD  82  68  86  69 /  90  80  80  40 
TYR  79  70  88  75 / 100  40  40  10 
GGG  78  68  88  72 / 100  60  50  20 
LFK  80  71  90  74 / 100  60  60  10 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-
     136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...26