National Weather Service Raw Text Product

257 
FXUS61 KOKX 252326
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
726 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through from the north and east tonight,
then remain to the south through Thursday night. The front will
return north as a warm front and stall nearby Friday night 
through Sunday night, then eventually lift north early next week
with a passing low in Canada. This low will drag a cold front 
through late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The Heat advisory was allowed to expire at 700 PM EDT, however,
heat indices at a few locations may still be near 95 until 
around 800 PM.

Newark and JFK both surpassed 100 degrees as expected, and heat
index values also over-peformed, with 105+ values in spots 
across NYC metro and Long Island.

This is the last day of the heat wave as a confluent upper flow
across eastern Canada and into the Northeast allows high 
pressure to build to the north. This will allow a cold front to 
sag south and west across the area tonight. Isolated to widely 
sct showers/tstms possible late today into this evening. In 
addition, a few showers/tstms possible along the eastern flank 
of the cold front which backs in from the NE this evening. 
Instability will be greatest across the Lower Hudson Valley and 
interior NE NJ, and any storms that manage to develop could have
gusty winds given dry sub-cloud air and relatively dry mid 
levels. 

Chance for showers and isolated tstms will continue overnight as
weak impulses ride long the frontal boundary from the west and
weak warm advection continues as cooler maritime air undercuts 
the warmer westerlies aloft. Brief downpours will be possible 
late tonight, especially across NYC metro area, Long Island, and
the lower Hudson Valley. Meanwhile, the low levels will continue
to stabilize overnight in a NE-E flow. It will be noticeably 
cooler tonight, but still several degrees above normal, with 
lows mostly in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Following consistent 00Z/12Z HREF signaling potential for a band
of locally heavy showers and isolated tstms in the morning,
mainly across NE NJ, the NYC metro area and western Long Island. 

Thereafter, convective complexes working in from the west will
likely dissipate, with the better chances for showers and
possible tstms north and west of NYC. Rainfall amounts will 
generally be on the light side. 

High temps on Thu will be in the lower 80s from NYC west, and 
in the 70s across Long Island and S CT. Continued cool advection
Thu night will lead to a downright chilly night compared to 
recent ones during the heat wave, with lows in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Wet, unsettled weather late Friday into Saturday night. 

* Mostly dry Sunday into Monday. 

* Low confidence temperature forecast Saturday through Monday. 

* Warm & wet Monday Night into Tuesday. 

A stalled frontal boundary draped over the Mid-Atlantic states 
Friday morning pushes back northward Friday afternoon into 
Friday night. This warm front is then expected to stall nearby 
Friday night through the weekend. Simultaneously, weakly 
amplified mid-level shortwave passes to our north late Friday 
into Saturday night within mainly zonal flow. Weakly amplified 
ridging aloft may return on Sunday into Monday.

Given the nearby frontal boundary and the passing shortwave
bringing pockets of midlevel energy through the area, 
unsettled weather is anticipated to start late Friday and linger
into Saturday night. While not a total washout, periodic 
passing showers are expected. This is aided by PWATs of 1.75 to 
2.25" through this period.

Thunderstorm chances and temperatures are harder to pinpoint
Friday night into the weekend. It is all dependent on if the 
warm front will pass north of our area before stalling nearby or
stall south of our area. Among the available guidance, the 
timing and location of the warm frontal passage varies, with 
some bringing it through Friday night and others not bringing it
through until Sunday night or Monday. Should it stall south, 
easterly flow would lead to cooler temperatures & showers Friday
afternoon into Saturday night. Should it advance north, 
southerly flow would lead to warmer temperatures & dewpoints, 
better aiding in not only shower coverage, but also a better 
environment for thunderstorm development. 

Nothing paints this uncertainty better than looking at the NBM's 
25th and 75th percentiles for temperatures which vary by more 
than 10-15 degrees Saturday through Monday. Meaning highs could 
end up in the upper-70s/lower-80s or the upper-80s/lower-90s on 
these days, solely depending on the stalled front's location. 

Regardless, confidence in mostly dry weather Sunday into Monday
is more confident given weak ridging aloft anticipated by most
guidance. 

An occluded low in Canada should capture the warm front on
Monday, dragging it northward. This will leave us warm-
sectored with a period of wet, unsettled weather Monday night 
into Tuesday. A cold front Tuesday night should lead to cooling 
temperatures and drier weather by Wednesday. 

Temperatures and POPs in the long-term forecast were driven
mostly by NBM due to low confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front moves through the terminals late this evening into
tonight, then slowly pushes south through Thursday.

Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
possible at the NYC metro and KISP early this evening, 02Z/03Z, 
with local MVFR possible. There will be a better chance of 
thunderstorms toward the Thursday morning push, and have 
maintained the PROB30s. Scattered showers and possibly an 
isolated thunderstorm will be possible through Thursday, with 
the better chance Thursday evening.

With scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving through
the region at 23Z, and with the sea breeze at KJFK, winds vary
from southerly to NW to N, and even NE. By late tonight winds
will become NE 10kt or less, then toward Thursday morning, winds
become more E and increase to 10-15kt. A NE to E flow 10-15kt
continues through Thursday, and a few gusts during the afternoon
will be possible.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

The sea breeze may briefly move through KLGA bu 01Z, however
with showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity, the sea breeze may
remain south of KLGA, so have a TEMPO for the wind shift.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 

Thursday night: VFR, MVFR possible, especially in showers.

Friday through Sunday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of 
showers.

Monday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A strengthening E flow on the ocean waters will lead to gusts 
up to 20 kt and seas up to 4 ft daytime Thu. SCA cond then
expected on the ocean waters Thu night into Fri, with seas 
building to 5-6 ft and gusts up to 25 kt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Localized downpours of 1-1.5 inches may be possible somewhere 
across NE NJ over to the NYC metro area and western Long Island 
Thu morning, leading to localized instances of urban and poor 
drainage flooding, with a marginal risk of flash flooding.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Persistent E flow after a cold frontal passage should lead to
widespread minor coastal flooding in NY Harbor, the back bays of
S Queens/Nassau, Peconic Bay, and the Westchester/SW CT
coastline with the Thu night high tide cycle. 

There is a moderate rip current on Thursday due to a building E
swell and 2-ft breakers in the surf zone.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Today's Daily Record High Temperatures:
EWR  100 / 2025 (ties 1943)
BDR   95 / 2025 (was 94 / 1952)
NYC   99 / 1943, 1952
LGA   99 / 2025 (ties 1943, 1952)
JFK  102 / 2025 (was 98 / 1952)
ISP   95 / 2025 (was 92 / 2003)

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/BR
NEAR TERM...BG/MET/DW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/BR
HYDROLOGY...BG/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...