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845 FXUS64 KOHX 140402 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1102 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1022 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Humid with medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend. Greatest rain chances each afternoon and early evening. - Generally low risk for severe weather, but some of the storms will contain torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 An upper-level trough continues to slowly track through the area with this feature currently centered near SE MO and the Mississippi River. This trough has kept scattered thunderstorms in the area all day, and radar shows a decaying line of showers/storms currently making their way through west TN. Do expect these storms to continue to weaken as they approach the TN River, but still won't rule out isolated showers/storms overnight. As the trough sticks around through the weekend, this will keep daily scattered thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. Coverage will be dirunally-driven meaning that greatest coverage is expected during the afternoon and evening hours. There will be plenty of instability with CAPE values around 1500 J/kg, but shear and lapse rates will be lacking which keeps our severe weather threat low. PWATs will be high though at around 1.75 to 2 inches. So while organized severe weather is not expected either Saturday or Sunday, the typical thunderstorm hazards of heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds are all possible. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 A break from this activity doesn't look like it comes anytime soon as a troughing pattern and plenty of moisture continues into next week which keeps daily rounds of thunderstorms in the forecast through at least Friday. Storms continue to be dirunally-driven with highest storm chances each afternoon and evening. Still not seeing any obvious signs for organized severe weather with weak wind shear and poor lapse rates. But any pulse thunderstorm any day will be capable of heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. A break from the persistent rain chances perhaps comes next weekend as models are showing a strong ridge building over the eastern US. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Most of the ongoing activity is exiting off to our east. CSV and SRB will experience rain through the next hour or two. As we move into the overnight hours, the majority of the night looks to be mostly dry. MVFR clouds will build in near 12Z along with a wind shift out of the SSW between 6 to 9 kts with the approach of the upper low. VFR thresholds look to return late morning as pop up thunderstorm activity returns. Due to low confidence in the exact location of thunderstorm development, PROB30 groups are in the taf at each terminal during the late morning and afternoon hours tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 70 84 71 87 / 60 80 40 60 Clarksville 70 82 70 85 / 50 80 30 20 Crossville 65 80 66 80 / 70 90 70 70 Columbia 69 83 69 87 / 60 80 40 50 Cookeville 67 80 67 81 / 70 90 60 80 Jamestown 65 80 66 80 / 70 90 60 90 Lawrenceburg 68 82 69 86 / 60 80 50 60 Murfreesboro 69 85 69 87 / 50 80 40 60 Waverly 68 81 68 85 / 60 80 30 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Baggett