National Weather Service Raw Text Product

014 
FXUS63 KOAX 121043
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
543 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible (5-14% chance)
  tonight near the Nebraska-South Dakota state line.
  

- On-and-off shower and thunderstorms chances (15-40% PoPs)
  Friday into early next week. Best severe-weather potential
  currently appears to be Monday-Wednesday.

- Highs continue to hover around 90 into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Mostly clear skies across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa
this morning as shower and storm activity remains confined to
locales north of the frontal boundary across northern Nebraska
and near the weak surface low over central and western Nebraska.
We currently sit under a fairly active zonal flow pattern with
an upper-level trough situated over the Southern Plains.

Shortwaves along this zonal flow pattern will continue to kick
up showers and thunderstorms through the day today along the
frontal boundary which is forecast to lift north this morning
and remain to our north over South Dakota. Meanwhile, we see the
deepening surface low track northeast into South Dakota and
Minnesota, buckling the stationary boundary, transitioning to a
cold front over western Nebraska. Expect showers and storms to
also develop along this boundary draped from far southwest
Nebraska northeast into Knox County this evening through the
overnight hours. With the model trend of setting this boundary
up farther west, the Storm Prediction Center has cut back
significantly on their Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across
eastern Nebraska, now just including western portions of
northeast Nebraska in the threat area. Primary hazard will be
damaging wind (60+ mph), but could also see some large hail (1+
inch) mainly during the afternoon. Elsewhere, expect most of our
area to miss out on shower and storm activity with slightly 
less hot temperatures this afternoon, peaking around 90. 

Friday we see the development of another Lee-side trough over
the western Plains shifting flow to southeasterly across eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa. Expect the daytime hours to be mostly
dry, though we could see an isolated shower or storm develop
over northeast Nebraska during the afternoon. Temperatures will
again peak during the afternoon around 90. Better chance for 
showers and storms will come after dark Friday night as the low-
level jet kicks up convection over northeast Nebraska again, 
along the boundary draped from Sioux Falls southwestward into 
northeast Colorado. The severe threat from these overnight 
storms should stay low due to limited shear and the elevated 
nature of the instability.

Showers and storms over central and northeastern Nebraska should
dissipate Saturday morning as an upper-level ridge moves over
the area providing subsidence to suppress updraft development.
This ridge will shift off to the east by the evening hours
bringing another trough into the Central Plains. Expect more
widespread shower and storm activity across eastern Nebraska,
possibly into western Iowa, with activity increasing through the
afternoon and evening. During this time we'll see increasing
surface-based instability with CAPE increasing to 1500-2500 J/kg
across our area. Models differ on the amount of environmental
shear, with the NAM being more aggressive forecasting 30-40 kt 
of bulk shear while the GFS has less than 20 kt. Still, shear 
will more likely remain relatively weak, making for more of a 
hail and damaging wind threat. Another concern we'll have to 
start watching on Saturday is the potential for heavy rainfall. 
PWAT values over southeast Nebraska Saturday evening increase to
1.5 to 1.6 inches indicating potential for significant rainfall
with slow-moving or training showers/storms. 

This flash flood potential only increases on Sunday with a
second day of showers and storms, again with chances increasing
through the afternoon and evening. WPC put most of our area
under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Despite all the
discussion about showers and storms, neither Saturday or Sunday
will be a complete wash-out all day, with scattered showers and
storms leading to dry periods and wet periods through the
weekend. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will again stay right
around 90 degrees.

Early next week, we see a more substantial trough move through 
bringing a fairly decent chance for severe weather. Machine 
Learning algorithms are really highlighting central and 
northeast Nebraska with a 15-30% chance for severe potential on 
Monday, expanding across all of eastern Nebraska into Iowa on 
Tuesday. The severe potential even lingers into Wednesday with a
jet streak pushing into eastern Nebraska only enhancing the 
potential with amplifying the environmental shear across our 
area. This is the time to start thinking about your plans 
Monday-Wednesday next week and what you might do if we end up 
with severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Mostly clear skies this morning with scattered cu developing 
this afternoon around FL060. Winds will remain out of the south,
increasing around 17Z with gusts to 25 kt, then decreasing 
again around 00Z. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy