National Weather Service Raw Text Product

356 
FXUS64 KMRX 192320
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
720 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Key Messages:

1. Isolated strong storms possible across southwest Virginia and
northeast Tennessee through early evening. Main concerns are
strong/gusty winds and localized runoff issues.

2. Areas of patchy dense fog early Friday morning.

Discussion:

Currently, a good deal of sunshine has broken out across the
Tennessee valley with satellite showing the best TCU and CB
development over southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. In 
middle Tennessee there is a good deal of cu development but is
currently capped. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis shows this cap
deteriorating with scattered convection developing northeast into
southeast Kentucky. Best instability of 1000-1500 will be across
southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee or along and north of 
interstate 40. 

Isolated strong storms are possible along with localized heavy
rainfall.

For Tonight, convective activity dissipate soon after sunset with
mostly clear/partly cloudy sky, calm winds, and moist ground to
produce patchy areas of fog, some dense.

For Friday, dry conditions with upper ridge building into the
area and mid-level capping inversion. Warmer temperatures with
plenty of sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Key Messages:

1. Heat wave developing across much of the area with heat indices
from the upper 90s to low 100s.

2. Dry much of the week with return of diurnal orographic
convection by the latter half of the week.

Discussion:

NBM Cluster Analysis are in agreement with a building ridge of
high pressure over the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachian
through the week. Temperatures will climb into the lower and
middle 90s for much of the Tennessee valley. As low-level moisture
returns during the week heat indices will climb into the upper 90s
to the lower 100s (possibly up to 105 degrees). 

By the latter half of next week, enough low-level instability 
returns to allow for scattered convection to develop near the 
terrain features.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Some showers and storms around briefly to start the period, with
TRI having the highest chance to be impacted. Will include a
prob30 thunder group at TRI. How much fog/low cigs will develop 
later tonight is still low confidence, but current indications 
are that all sites will see at least some restriction so will 
include IFR conditions prevailing at all sites and a tempo LIFR 
fog group at TRI for a few hours. Once any fog/low clouds 
dissipate, VFR conditions can be expected the remainder of the day
Friday with light winds. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             68  90  68  92 /  20   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  66  87  66  91 /  30   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       65  87  65  90 /  20   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              62  84  61  88 /  30   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...