National Weather Service Raw Text Product

079 
FXUS62 KMHX 121110
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
710 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain stalled near the coastal plain today, 
washing out over the Carolinas through the rest of the week. The
pattern will remain unsettled this weekend into early next week
with high pressure offshore, and frontal boundary stalled to 
the south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 710 AM Thu...

Update...Broken bank of low stratus focused over much of ENC
continues to burn off as sun rises this morning. Expecting skies
to clear out by 9-10 AM LT.

More typical summertime pattern taking hold 
over the southeastern CONUS this morning as mid-level ridge 
centered over the western Atlantic extends over the region, 
buttressed against a closed low meandering over the southern 
plains. At the surface, Bermuda high continues to steadily 
expand over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic. Yesterday's stalled 
frontal boundary is becoming increasingly diffuse and is 
forecast to dissipate completely today.

Ridging aloft will not be strong enough to shut out convection
this afternoon, but coverage will likely be more scattered than
yesterday. Lack of shear and appreciable forcing will keep a
more organized severe risk at bay, favoring more pulse-like
activity. However, with above-average PWATs in the 1.75-2" range
and very weak winds aloft (HREF forecast cloud layer winds are a
meager 5-10 kt), storms will be slow moving and may pose a
flooding threat in vulnerable areas. Most of our FA remains in 
a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for today.

Highs climb to slightly above climo today, in the mid to upper
80s. A few 90s are probable especially across the coastal plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM Thu...Convection quickly dies off after sunset 
with loss of heating. Plenty of cirrus flooding over the region 
ahead of the aforementioned plains low should help inhibit 
renewed fog formation overnight, but reliable guidance does show
low stratus developing once again in very moist low-levels, 
especially over the coastal plain. Shower and thunderstorm 
activity will tick up again over the Atlantic but should remain 
well away from coastal locales. Sultry lows, with temps 
bottoming out in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 0400 Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Warm, Moist, Unsettled.

Bermuda High remains anchored in place with upper ridging 
builds in across SECONUS bringing in broad subsidence aloft. 
This weekend, two sluggish systems inch toward the FA, a cold
front sagging Sward from Great Lakes and a midlevel cutoff low
dragging Eward from TX. Moisture content remains ample in 
onshore flow through the bottom half of the column keeping 
mentionable PoPs in the forecast for the vast majority of the 
period. Showers/TS in general summer diurnal pattern with best 
chances associated with seabreeze in afternoon and evenings 
becoming confined offshore nocturnally. 

Early next week mid level trough approaches from the W with the
offshore high holding strong keeping moisture and instability
in place for more summer precip pattern forecasts. The
aforementioned front is forecast to remain N of the FA through
the weekend and early week, but waves traveling along the
boundary make details of the front's exact location a little
tricky. 

Once the midlevel shortwave has cleared the FA next week, the
effects of the offshore ridging will reach further W, leading to
more zonal flow aloft and a less dynamic pattern, at least
briefly. 

General warming trend in Ts through the long term, MaxTs in mid
upper 80s maybe touching 90 and MinTs low 70s heating up to
MaxTs in the low to mid 90s with MinTs in mid 70s by late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Fri/... 
As of 710 AM Thu...After fairly widespread IFR and LIFR
overnight, flight conditions slowly beginning to improve as
insolation burns off deck of low stratus. Expecting a return to
VFR no later than 13z for all terminals. Weather returns to a 
typical summer regime of scattered showers and thunderstorms 
developing along the sea breeze and migrating inland. Convection
coverage expected to be a bit less than yesterday. Precipitation
window closes after 00-01z.

Fog threat overnight appears considerably lower with
introduction of widespread cirrus overnight, but there is a
moderate chance (30-40%) of low stratus redeveloping over most
terminals after 08z Fri.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... 
As of 0400 Thursday...Unsettled conditions will prevail through
the period, keeping diurnal showers and tstorms in the forecast
each day. Expect periods of sub- VFR flight cats with gusty 
winds under showers/storms in afternoon and evening with early 
morning fog development possible for areas that see rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... 
As of 350 AM Thu...Relatively benign boating conditions in place
over ENC waters with southwesterly flow of 19-15 kt on the
western periphery of Bermuda high pressure, and seas sitting at
around 3 feet across all offshore zones. This pattern is
expected to change little over the next 24 hours and conditions
will largely remain stagnant, apart from a slight backing and
increase of winds in the late afternoon and early evening as sea
breeze circulations take hold. No SCA conditions are expected in
the short term.


LONG TERM /Friday though Monday/... 
As of 0400 Thursday...Generally SW 10-15kt through the long 
term, strongest during peak heating, calming ever so slightly 
overnight. Typical summer-time precip pattern: 
offshore showers early AM, clearing afternoons, nocturnal 
showers and storms. Winds slightly stronger weekend, SWerly 
15-20kt offshore.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...MS/CEB
MARINE...MS/CEB