063 
FXUS62 KMFL 271703
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
103 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Sfc analyses and model data show ridging still covering much of 
the Caribbean Sea and much of the east Gulf waters, while broad 
high pressure over the E CONUS is keeping a stationary, decaying
frontal boundary across central Florida. This will keep a tropical
moist air mass in place again today, which combined with 
relatively weak winds, is allowing for sea breeze boundaries to 
become the main mechanism for convection and thunderstorm 
activity. 

Model soundings show PWat values at or above 2 inches, which will
support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the 
rest of the afternoon hours. Latest ensembles and high-res 
solutions show a more wider spread of showers compared to previous
days, with better chances across most of interior and SE Florida.

Tonight's low temperatures will remain mainly in the mid-upper 70s, 
warmest near the coasts. A few coastal locations may remain in the
low 80s.  


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Latest analysis and ensemble data continues to highlight a weather 
pattern that lacks a significant lifting mechanism and energy across 
South Florida, which will continue to favor a typical summertime 
pattern for the next couple of days where the dominant force in 
convective development will be daytime heating and the afternoon sea 
breezes. A stationary frontal boundary will continue to meander near 
Central Florida and perhaps as far south as Lake Okeechobee, but 
this boundary will not play a major factor in convective growth for 
South Florida. Mid-level flow will continue to be out of the west, 
thus showers and storms later in the day that develop over the 
interior will be steered towards the east coast metro areas. 
Overall, no major hazards are expected today through tomorrow other 
than the possibility of a couple isolated stronger storm cores that 
may produce pockets of heavier rain and frequent lightning. The 
strongest storms are expected to form over interior sections of the 
region as this will be where the strongest convergence occurs. PoPs 
will be around 50-60% the next couple days near the coast and 70-80% 
over the interior. 

High temperatures today and tomorrow are expected in the low to mid 
90s for most areas, with isolated locations in the interior reaching 
the upper 90s. Heat index values are expected in the low to mid 100s 
and with most of the convective activity occurring inland there will 
be a good chance for Miami-Dade and Broward counties to reach heat 
advisory criteria (heat index of 105 or higher for two or more 
consecutive hours). With this in mind, a heat advisory has been 
issued for these two counties today between 11AM-6PM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Longwave troughing across the eastern CONUS will continue to amplify 
and dig southwards towards the Florida Peninsula and even South 
Florida this weekend. As this occurs, surface low pressure is 
expected to develop near the Florida Panhandle and northeastern Gulf 
along with a steady stream of positive vorticity impulses streaming 
across South Florida in association with the longwave trough across 
the Eastern Seaboard. The surface low and positive vorticity 
advection will provide daily energy for lift across the area and 
help assist in the development of diurnal showers and thunderstorms 
as well as the sea breezes, which has the potential to create 
widespread showers and storms given ample moisture available (PWATs 
of 1.7-2.0+ inches). Low level flow during this time frame will veer 
towards the west-southwest as winds flow cyclonically around the 
surface low near the northeastern Gulf. This will steer convection 
towards the east coast metro areas. Furthermore, a stationary 
frontal boundary is likely to park itself in north-central Florida 
(perhaps shifting a little further south at times), which will keep 
moisture pooled across the region. The combination of these factors 
could pose potential for hydro concerns each day from this weekend 
through early next week given the risk for training showers and 
storms across the same areas. However, details still remain 
uncertain and will continue to be assessed daily with any impacts 
communicated as necessary. 

Temperatures during the extended period will start to decrease 
slightly as we are looking at an increase in rain coverage and cloud 
cover. High temperatures for Friday and Saturday are expected in the 
low to mid 90s, and then a slight decrease from Sunday through the 
end of the extended in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will 
range from the low to mid 70s for the lake and Gulf coast regions to 
the upper 70s for the east coast metro.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 733 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Light and variable winds will increase out of the ESE after 16z 
and will remain around 10 kts through the afternoon. Scattered 
showers and storms could develop near the terminals this 
afternoon. Periods of sub-VFR conditions will be possible in and 
around any thunderstorm. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the 
WNW this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Mostly benign conditions are expected across the local waters the 
rest of this week. A gentle SE breeze is expected through late week. 
Scattered showers and storms remain possible each day and may result 
in locally higher winds and seas. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  91  78  92 /  40  50  40  70 
West Kendall     77  91  76  92 /  40  50  30  70 
Opa-Locka        79  93  78  92 /  40  50  40  70 
Homestead        78  91  78  91 /  40  50  30  70 
Fort Lauderdale  79  91  78  91 /  50  50  40  70 
N Ft Lauderdale  79  91  78  92 /  50  60  40  70 
Pembroke Pines   79  94  78  94 /  50  50  40  70 
West Palm Beach  78  91  77  92 /  50  60  40  70 
Boca Raton       78  92  77  92 /  50  60  40  70 
Naples           77  93  78  92 /  40  60  40  60 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
UPDATE...17