National Weather Service Raw Text Product

186 
FXUS64 KLUB 131104
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
604 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 558 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

 - A few thunderstorms possible on the Caprock this evening.

 - Hotter than normal temperatures through the period.

 - A slight chance of late-day to early evening thunderstorms most
   days. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Convection from earlier in the evening has since dissipated, and the 
rest of the night should remain quiet. Much of the day is expected 
to remain quiet as well. Models continue to develop convection along 
the Mescalero Escarpment by the late afternoon/early evening. 
Slight northwesterly upper flow, along with outflow, will help push 
the convection across the Texas/New Mexico state line into our 
western zones around sunset. Synoptic scale models dissipate the 
convection by midnight as it approaches the I27/US87 corridor while 
some CAMs bring the convection into the Rolling Plains well after 
midnight before dissipating. Stronger convection should be able to 
sustain itself long enough to make it just into the Rolling Plains, 
but general convection like what was seen earlier this evening will 
have a much harder time sustaining itself after sunset. PoPs will be 
kept in the forecast from 00Z-06Z for now. The severe threat is 
marginal with the main threat being damaging winds followed by hail 
up to one inch in diameter.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Convective chances decrease going into the weekend. The upper ridge 
to our west will amplify while becoming a closed low before slowly 
pushing eastward. Convection is likely to develop under the center 
of the upper high both tomorrow and Sunday afternoon over the 
mountains of New Mexico, the position of the upper high will limit 
the eastward progression of convection. Convection will rely mostly 
on outflow to sustain an eastward movement, and this will be limited 
as convection should dissipate not long after sunset. The severe 
threat will also be limited should storms make it into our western 
counties with severe wind gusts being the main threat from 
collapsing updrafts. The axis of the upper ridge will push to our 
east early next week as an upper shortwave trough digs across the 
central CONUS. This pushes a dryline followed by a "cold" front 
through the region by mid week. The progressive nature and position 
of the upper trough would suggest convection chances are not 0, but 
also not likely. A stout upper high is progged to build across much 
if the southern CONUS by Thursday through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail. There is a slight chance for -TSRA at
PVW and LBB between 00Z and 06Z tonight, but confidence is too low
to mention in this TAF cycle. If a storm does affect a terminal,
the primary hazards will be wind gusts in excess of 40 knots, hail
one inch in diameter, and brief heavy downpours that could lower
VIS to low end MVFR.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...51