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427 FXUS64 KLIX 132336 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 636 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 The MCS that developed this morning across central LA that caused flash flooding near Lafayette congealed and developed a deep cold pool that aided in a quick progression east across the area through midday today. This has dramatically altered the temperature forecast for today as the prior forecast hinged on a weaker cold pool from this MCS that kept progression slower and allowed for additional storm development ahead of this boundary into the afternoon hours. Temperatures are predominantly in the mid 70s to low 80s areawide with broken mid-upper cloud cover and as such the forecast has adjust high temperatures down. Some gradually clearing is anticipated in the coming hours on the west edge of this MCS's canopy which will help with some rebound in temperatures later this afternoon, but redevelopment of thunderstorms is less likely than advertised in the prior forecast package. This rain-cooled air has stabilized most of the area, and any attempts for storms to redevelop would likely be focused across the SW CWA near the Atchafalaya basin where recovery is already beginning. Another muggy night tonight with rain-saturated soils and calm winds helping to saturate the boundary layer quicker than previous nights. If skies clear sufficiently, patchy fog will be possible mainly over southwest MS and adjancent Florida Parishes north of I-12. SREF/HREF guidance provides a low chance (20%) of dense fog development tonight so a short-fused dense fog advisory could be possible if observations begin to indicate a quicker, more dense onset of fog than currently forecast. A more typical summer morning is on tap for Saturday with mostly clear skies that will heat us up quickly into midday and get stronger temperature gradients between land and water to get sea and lake breezes started up by noon. Increasing shower and thunderstorms are likely by midday and will gradually move inland into the afternoon hours. DCAPE values of 900-1200 j/kg and PWATs greater than 1.8" via forecast model soundings for Saturday afternoon indicate that any strong storm will carry the potential for damaging winds up to 50 to 60 mph and very high rainfall rates in excess of 3" per hour. 0-3km lapse rates will also exceed 8 C/km with weaker mid-level lapse rates which would be sufficient for lofting small hail cores that can assist in downward transport of strong winds potentially via wet microbursts. These showers and storms will gradually wane into the evening hours as daytime heating dissipates and land areas stabilize. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 The weak shortwave trough that has been stuck over the south central CONUS for days now will continue to gradually lift northeast into the OH River Valley this weekend, but these lingering lower heights relative surrounding mid-upper ridging surrounding it will still be sufficient for afternoon thunderstorms along the lake and sea breezes each day heading into next week. A lot of rinse/repeat forecasts ahead into next week with more nuanced differences in rainfall patterns each day depending on the preexisting convection from outside of our area as a secondary weak shortwave trough that digs into the lower Mississippi River Valley reinforces this blocking pattern through midweek. There are some hints in the global model ensembles that we finally may start to dry out and warm up by the end of next week as ridging over the SW CONUS and SW Atlantic merge over the northern Gulf Coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 VFR to near MVFR conditions across the area. These conditions should remain through the night with the exception of MCB where some light fog may develop and drop VIS to around 4SM, but the main impact will be some stratus build down dropping CIGs to IFR for a brief time from 11 - 14Z. Convective activity will return tomorrow with daytime heating and boundary formation, especially sea/lake breezes, which is reflected in PROB30s. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Light southerly flow is expected through the weekend and into next week at 10 knots or less along the western flank of the Bermuda High. Wind and seas will be largely benign during the forecast period. As typical for summer, the winds east of the MS Delta will be a touch higher each night. Winds and seas will be locally higher during the afternoon and overnight hours with storms along the coast each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 72 88 72 90 / 30 70 30 70 BTR 75 90 75 92 / 30 70 20 80 ASD 74 91 74 92 / 20 60 20 80 MSY 78 91 77 92 / 20 70 20 80 GPT 77 89 76 89 / 30 60 30 80 PQL 74 90 74 90 / 30 60 30 70 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJS LONG TERM....TJS AVIATION...DS MARINE...TJS