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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLCH Product Timestamp: 2025-06-12 11:25 UTC
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617 FXUS64 KLCH 121125 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 625 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Marginal risk of severe storms outlined across the forecast area today - Slight to moderate risk of excessive rain outlined across southeast Texas today - High rain chances will persist into this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Showers and storms are once again building over central Texas this morning under a diffluent flow caused by an upper low. The upper disturbance is anticipated to gradually lift northeast today with the best lift over central and eastern TX lifting northeast in tandem. The convection near and west of the Houston Metro is anticipated to gradually shift east this morning and enter deep SE TX between sunrise and mid morning and then into LA around mid day, much like yesterday. Again today, the airmass remains very moist with PWATs around or above of 2" which is at or above the 90th percentile for the date. Very efficient rainfall producing storms may result. Over the past few days, higher rainfall totals have been fairly spotty. Forecast totals today in SE TX are between 1 and 2 inches, however if storms train, totals will increase quickly. Opted to hold off on the flood watch for SE TX being that antecendent conditions are marginal and the higher forecast totals are just east of our region. With that said, conditions will be monitored and a watch could be issued later if guidance increases much on rainfall totals. The upper low will slowly move northeast tonight and into Friday, however the weakness aloft will remain in place. Convection across the area will wax and wane tonight and into Friday. WPC has kept a marginal risk of excessive rain over the entire area through Friday as this occurs. By Saturday the upper low will be over the OH Valley, however a weakness aloft will remain in place, yet diminished. Diurnal heating is expected to be the main cause of convection. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 During the end of the weekend and into early next week convection is anticipated to be mainly diurnal driven and more typical of summer afternoon storms. The region will remain between 2 upper ridges, one centered over the Atlantic and the other over NW Mexico. Enough of a weakness aloft will remain in place for at least scattered storms. While the forecast doesn't explicitly indicate convection continuing to decrease into mid week, the upper ridge over Mexico may build into the area by mid week suppressing convection. This will serve to increase temperatures back above climo norms for the date as cloud cover and cooling storms decrease in coverage. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Periods of lower vis and ceilings can be expected through much of the day. Patchy IFR ceilings will occur this morning, but gradually improve to patchy MVFR. Rain will create lower vis. SE winds will veer south and become gusty at times today. Winds may be erratic near storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Light to occasionally modest onshore flow and low seas will persist through this week. Elevated thunderstorm chances will linger through the week and the upcoming weekend which may cause locally higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 87 71 89 73 / 80 50 80 20 LCH 88 75 88 78 / 70 50 70 20 LFT 88 75 88 76 / 70 30 80 20 BPT 86 75 87 77 / 90 40 70 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...05