National Weather Service Raw Text Product

611 
FXUS62 KILM 190136
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
936 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid summertime weather will continue with 
temperatures above normal for most of the week. Rain chances
will increase late Thursday into Friday due to an approaching
front. A strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S. 
will lead to a warming trend through the weekend into next 
week, with the potential for increased heat risk Monday and 
Tuesday. Rain chances may return mid next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Series of storms south of Georgetown County this evening have
been slowly drifting north, reaching Georgetown and Williamsburg
counties before quickly weakening. SPC mesoanalysis shows these 
storms are developing in a corridor of SBCAPE >4k J/KG (similar 
values supported convection into mid-late evening Tue night). 
Anticipate similar results tonight, although storms may weaken a
bit early as the CAMs show SBCAPE values dropping a little 
earlier. Would think by 10PM local very little convection will 
be left. Boundary layer winds remain around 10 kt overnight 
which will keep lows well above normal and prevent any fog 
development.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Isolated seabreeze activity has favored the SC coast where greater 
instability has developed. And while not handled so well in CAMs it 
is still expected to diminish heading towards sunset. This scenario 
likely unfolds again early tomorrow as POPs also increases from the 
NW late in the day with the Piedmont trough strengthening and some 
mid level height falls start to impinge upon the area. Afternoon 
heat index values should top out in the upper 90s Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will move through Thursday night into Friday 
morning. A line of showers and storms of questionable integrity 
should move towards the area Thursday night moving offshore by the 
morning. Activity should ignite along the sea breeze again Friday 
afternoon with maybe some enhancement if the boundary sticks around. 
Friday night should then be mostly dry as high pressure builds in 
and the column dries out. Highs amidst rain/clouds should peak near 
90 with lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some activity may be possible with the sea breeze Saturday before we 
enter a dry period through early next week. Highs will be in the 
90s, warming day to day. Heat indices will near 105F come Monday and 
Tuesday, and Heat Advisories may be needed. Rain chances may start 
to increase once more into mid next week as low pressure approaches 
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High confidence in VFR through midday Thursday. A few showers 
currently south of Georgetown will slowly move their way north 
this evening, but decreasing surface instability due to loss of 
heating should lead to these dissipating before reach CRE/MYR.
Remaining terminals have no threat of showers or thunderstorms.
Boundary layer winds tonight will keep fog at bay for all 
terminals.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase tomorrow afternoon and
evening as a surface trough moves into the area. Timing is
likely around or just beyond the end of the current valid TAF
period, but have included prob30 for inland TAF sites. Coastal 
sites are most likely to see storms arriving after 00Z Friday.

Extended Outlook...A front will produce 
periods of sub- VFR in shwrs/tstms late Thurs into Fri. 
Otherwise, brief restrictions due to widely scattered to 
scattered thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...Bermuda High to remain in place through the 
period while Piedmont trough becomes better defined. Wind will 
remain out of the SW with a moderate gradient. A few gusts to 
25kt still expected but no advisory planned. The 4-5 second wind
wave will be the dominant one as the easterly swell energy will
be mostly offshore. 

Thursday Night through Monday...Strong SW winds will be in place 
Thursday night ahead of a frontal passage. A few gusts could be near 
25 kts, and should certainty increase a Small Craft Advisory may be 
needed. As high pressure builds in wind speeds will decrease to AOB 
10 kts staying mostly S with an onshore push in the 
afternoon/evening. 4-5 ft waves will decrease to 2-3 ft Friday 
where they'll remain for the rest of the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...MBB/LEW