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389 FXUS63 KICT 161143 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 643 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms possible tonight into Tuesday morning - Storms likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night - Dry and warm Thursday-Sunday with rain chances returning early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 As of 3 AM Monday morning, a midlevel ridge axis was retreating into the southwest US, allowing zonal flow to return to the central Plains. A few showers and storms were ongoing across southern NE but recent radar trends suggest the convection was dissipating. This is likely due to a lack of WAA across KS and eastern NE with VAD wind profiles revealing backing winds from 925 to 700 mb. Transitioning into this afternoon and tonight, cyclonic midlevel flow will overspread the high Plains through the day, allowing for the deepening a surface trough axis from southeast CO into eastern NE. Upslope flow on the northern periphery of the surface low in southeast CO should allow for storm development this afternoon from eastern CO into eastern WY/western NE. This activity is likely to grow upscale and propagate on the nose of the LLJ. The latest suite of model guidance has shifted the core of the LLJ slightly further south, increasing confidence for storms across portions of central/eastern KS. Overall effective shear values remain weak (less than 25 kt). Moderate instability (2500-3500 J/kg) combined with DCAPE near 1500 J/kg will support a damaging wind threat. The best potential for widespread thunderstorm activity arrives Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The spatial and severity extent hinges on the duration/progression of tonight's MCS. The aforementioned surface trough axis will sink towards central and northeast KS Tuesday afternoon. Strong surface heating is expected to recover the boundary layer behind tonight's MCS with buoyancy values along/ahead of the trough axis exceeding 3000 J/kg. The arrival of stronger midlevel winds will create a more-favorable wind profile with effective shear values of 35-40 kt. The combination would support supercell structures, at least initially, with large hail, damaging winds, a tornado or 2, and heavy rain all possible. As the evening progresses, upscale growth into an MCS is expected with an eastern propagation. The biggest concern may transition to training convection and flooding with the potential for backbuilding convection on the trailing outflow boundary as a 40-50 kt LLJ develops. The latest HREF suggests the potential for a second MCS passage late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with convection developing across eastern CO/western NE and moving southeast overnight. Lingering storms are possible across southeast KS Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. Longwave, midlevel ridging will build across the area for the second half of the week, setting the stage for drier and warmer conditions. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Patchy fog will continue through 14Z near CNU with VFR conditions prevailing area-wide thereafter. Southerly winds will also increase after 14Z to 10-15 kt with the strongest across central KS. Thunderstorms are possible late this evening into early Tuesday morning but confidence is too low for anything more than a PROB30 at this point. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRF AVIATION...BRF