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531 FXUS64 KHUN 120800 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 300 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 High clouds have begun to filter in ahead of a low pressure system currently located in the Plains. Through the day today, this low pressure system will slowly migrate from the Plains towards the Mississippi Valley. Along and ahead of this feature, SSW flow both at the surface and aloft will advect in a very moist tropical airmass. Aloft, PWATS will climb through the day today from around and inch to nearing two inches by nightfall. At the surface, dew points in the high 60s to low 70s will plague the TN Valley by this afternoon. The very moist tropical airmass will prime us for several days of increased rain and storm chances beginning this afternoon. Low to medium (30-50%) chances of scattered showers and storms will be possible with best chances this afternoon through around midnight. Without close proximity to the parent low, we will lack any sufficient forcing for organized convection. Thus, we are not anticipating any severe storms this afternoon. Rather, a few hundred J/KG of CAPE and PWATS in the 90th percentile per OHX sounding climatology will support lightning and heavy rainfall being the main risk associated with afternoon storms. With cloudy conditions in place for most of the day, heat will be a sneaky secondary threat. As us southerners like to say, its not the heat, its the humidity, and that will certainly be true today. While high temps will top out in the mid to high 80s, the high tropical dewpoints will surge heat indices into the 90s for most of the area. This will make for a very sticky and sweaty afternoon, thus make sure to have proper cooling and hydration for anyone partaking in outdoor activities. Likewise, remember when thunder roars, go indoors! && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 A slow-moving area of low pressure will meander across the Deep South late this week, bringing much higher chances for showers and thunderstorms (70-90%) both Friday and Saturday -- with the highest probabilities favoring the afternoon and evening hours. PWATs will increase to between 1.8" to 2.0" during this timeframe, evident of the deeper Gulf moisture advecting in. These values would reflect the 95-99th percentile for June 13-14 per BMX sounding climatology. As a result, locally heavy rainfall in locations where storms train and/or stall will be a concern and we'll have to watch for the potential for very localized flash flooding. Despite the high rain chances, enough breaks in the clouds during the morning hours will allow temperatures to at least reach the mid 80s to perhaps upper 80s both days. Despite highs in the 80s, higher RH values will push heat indices closer to the mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 An active pattern will continue through Father's Day weekend and into early next week as the broad upper-low lingers across the Deep South. This will result in medium to high chances for showers and storms each day, favoring the afternoon and evening hours. A few of these storms could become locally strong, but the main concern will continue to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall from these very efficient rain-producing thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover and high rain chances will keep highs in the mid 80s during this timeframe, with peak heat index values remaining in the mid to perhaps upper 80s. Ridging will begin to take shape by midweek, lowering rain chances and potentially giving us more heat impacts by Wednesday as heat indices are forecast to peak above 100 degrees -- with a few locations flirting with Advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 VFR conditions will be the prevailing flight category. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon however their exact timing and coverage remains somewhat uncertain at this time. Timing and intensity details will be refined in future TAF issuances. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....AMP LONG TERM....AMP AVIATION...RAD