National Weather Service Raw Text Product

302 
FXUS62 KGSP 192348
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
748 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves toward the Carolina coast by late tonight 
taking most of the showers and storms with it.  Dry air moves in 
behind this front, leading to mostly quiet conditions Friday and 
Saturday. Hot and muggy conditions return Sunday and beyond with a 
hot upper level ridge building over our region.  Daily thunderstorm 
chances return by mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 5:45 PM EDT Thursday: Nearly all of the pre-frontal convection
has now moved east of our fcst area with only a few sct showers and 
thunderstorms still lingering over our northern NC Piedmont zones. 
This activity should move east of our CWA over the next hour or two 
with mostly dry conditions expected for the rest of the evening and 
overnight in the wake of the fropa.  

Otherwise, the cold front should make a full fropa later this evening
into the early overnight hours, with CAMs showing the potential for 
additional sct precip developing along the boundary as it moves thru
the mountains after sunset, but none of the precip progressing much 
further east than that. Southwesterly winds with low-end gusts will 
continue until the cold front pushes through tonight, allowing winds 
to veer northwesterly for most locations. Lingering convective debris
should dissipate overnight as dry air advection filters in behind the 
front. Can't rule out some low stratus/fog around daybreak Friday, 
especially in the major mountain valleys and locations that receive 
rainfall as moisture levels won't completely dry out. Overnight lows 
will be a little cooler compared to the past few nights with values 
near normal.

Enjoy Friday and consider it a Summertime post-frontal regime as the
cold front will be well to the south and the trough axis eventually
slips east of the CFWA by Friday afternoon. Dewpoints should mix out 
into the low to mid 60s during peak heating, with afternoon highs 
expected to be near-normal with mostly sunny skies. Can't ask for 
a better mid to late June day before the heat cranks up in the short-
term and extended forecast periods. Some CAMs trying to initiate a few 
showers and rogue thunderstorm along the northern Blue Ridge Escarpment 
during the afternoon, but confidence is too ow for a mentionable PoP 
at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM Thu: In general, little change to the forecast for the
weekend. Subsidence associated with deepening ridge over the SE US
looks to cap off diurnal convection. A weak shortwave generated from
convection in the Upper Midwest may drift southeast over the area
Saturday but presently that looks to have little to no effect on the
inversion or to generate precip on its own, owing to dry profiles
aloft. PoPs will remain below slight-chance Saturday throughout the
CWA, even over the mtn ridges.

Progs of sfc dewpoint across the region still reflect some of the
post-frontal drying on Saturday and did allow dewpoints to mix out a
bit Saturday afternoon. Weak southerly near-sfc flow will aid in
slight moisture return, so dewpoints will rise a little higher Sunday
although still probably falling into the mid-60s across much of the
Piedmont. With that and the weak upslope flow into the mtns and
southern Escarpment, a small area of isolated thunder chances does
return SW of Asheville.

Temps trending warmer, about 3-5 above normal for maxes Saturday and
6-8 above normal Sunday. Despite the mixed dewpoints, some areas in
the lower Piedmont should see heat index exceed 100 Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thu: Upper anticyclone initially centered over West
Virginia will retrograde slightly through the middle of next week,
but will remain very strong in the upper 590s DM. Its low-level
reflection also retrogrades which would further support a warming
trend and may weaken the already paltry moisture flux.  The airmass
will continue to modify anyway; temperatures trend warmer thru
Tuesday when thicknesses appear to peak. Some areas of the lower
Piedmont will flirt with air temps of 100 that day, with widespread
upper 90s otherwise expected across the Piedmont as a whole
Monday-Wednesday. Even the mountain valleys reach the lower 90s
Tue-Wed. Heat Advisory may eventually be needed for portions of the
area Mon-Wed if fcst trends hold.

Deep mixing is forecast in the hot conditions and that permits only
15-20% PoPs over the mountain ridges Mon-Tue.  PoPs trend slightly
higher Wed, probably attributable to increasing model spread in the
specifics of return moisture and position of the anticyclone; values
remain below climo.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to prevail thru 
the 00z taf period. The only exception is at KAVL, where there is 
a decent chance that mountain valley fog will develop overnight and 
impact the terminal beginning around 08z. I limited any IFR restric-
tions to 2sm within a TEMPO group, but they could certainly go lower.
Any restrictions should dissipate/lift by roughly 13z with VFR for
the rest of the period. Otherwise, a cold front is currently making 
its way eastward thru the fcst area. The drier air behind the front 
should keep us mostly dry tonight and tomorrow. Winds, however will
be tricky to fcst for much of the period. They are expected to toggle
around to NWLY behind the front overnight, and then more NELY by to-
morrow afternoon. They will be light tomorrow, however, so they may
end up being more VRB thru the aftn/evening.

Outlook: Expect drier conditions to persist thru the weekend. Fog and/
or low stratus will be possible each morning in the usual mtn valleys 
and near lakes and rivers.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CAC/JPT
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...JPT