National Weather Service Raw Text Product

569 
FXUS63 KGLD 140251
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
851 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some fog and stratus is possible Saturday morning; dense fog 
  can't be ruled out.

- Discrete cells Friday afternoon may eventually grow upscale
  into a cluster during the evening. Strong to severe storms are
  forecast.

- Strong to perhaps severe potential continues through the
  weekend. Tuesday may be a more widespread severe weather day.

- Above normal temperatures are likely to persist through the 
  upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A brand new Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the
majority of the area through 09Z as a cluster of storms
continues to move to the east across Yuma county and a new
cluster of storms have developed along a boundary across
Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado. Current thinking
is that winds up to 70 mph will be the main hazard along with
hail to ping pong ball size with the strongest updrafts as long
as updraft interactions don't interfere with duration of hail
aloft. The other Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Yuma county
remains in effect through 04Z. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Synoptically, we're in an interesting pattern as a ridge extends up 
from Baja California and a stationary low sits over Missouri. This 
has been allowing for diurnal shortwaves to fire off of the Rockies, 
giving us daily chances at storms. In the low levels, we will not be 
lacking moisture as the 850 mb flow, while not terribly strong, will 
continue to funnel moisture into the region.

Through the mid-day, an area of moisture convergence has sparked 
some storms along and southeast of a line from Hill City to Leoti, 
KS. These storms do have over 2,500 J/kg of MUCAPE to work with, but 
the lack of shear and a strong forcing mechanism is preventing them 
from really taking off. Lightning is the main hazard from these 
storms. These storms may present an issue for the storms later this 
evening. The cooler air these showers and storms are leaving may 
drain some of the energy the later storms would tap into. There is 
only a 15% chance these storms impact the overall severe potential 
of the later storms.

The NAMNEST has been showing some isolated storms firing in 2 areas 
ahead of the main line between 21-0Z. The first area, which is 
looking less likely (5-10% chance), would be south of I-70 along the 
western edges of the CWA, along the dryline. The second area, which 
has about a 15-25% chance of forming, would be around the Tri-State 
border, due to the retreating dryline. These early storms, if they 
do form, would generally be high based and may produce dry lightning 
and/or erratic wind shifts. 1 inch hail or a brief landspout cannot 
be ruled out either 

As is expected in this pattern, a shortwave looks to spark the 
storms and drive them into the GLD CWA this afternoon/evening. This 
round of storms will form in northeastern Colorado and proceed to 
the east, then southeast. All hazards will be possible with these 
storms. In the far northwestern CWA, there is a supercell tornado 
threat as the storms are grouping together, cell mergers may play a 
part in this. Hail potentially up to 2 inches will also be possible 
during this time. As the storms group together, wind will become 
more of a threat, and as the storms progress to the southeast, where 
rain has not recently fallen, blowing dust will be a concern. CAMs 
are showing a moderately organized outflow starting around 4-5Z, 
this would provide the best potential for a haboob. The threat for a 
haboob is only around 10% now due to the following factors. 1) 
recent rainfall has likely been able to settle the surface layer 
dust for the areas that would likely see the strongest winds. 2) The 
main wind threat is expected to be after sunset, allowing near 
surface lapse rates to lower, which is less supportive of blowing 
dust. From this outflow, a QLCS may also form, and although the 
shear is pretty weak, we cannot rule out a quick spin-up tornado. 
Winds during this time could gust up to 65 kts. Main timing for the 
severe threats will be between 22-6Z, however there is still a wide 
variance with timing between CAMs for the storms today. Storms may 
start enter the CWA early as 20Z, or as late as 4Z. We are watching 
the potential for a flash flooding threat in the areas that received 
more than an inch of rain early this morning, especially the Oakley 
area.

These storms, depending on when they fire, are expected to last past 
midnight, with lingering, scatted showers continuing into Saturday 
morning. There is a 10% chance of additional storm developing around 
10-14Z tomorrow morning, which would give the northeastern 1/4 of 
the CWA another chance at rain and hail. The storm's cloud cover 
will keep us somewhat warm overnight, keeping our temperatures in 
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Tomorrow, another shortwave will eject off of the Rockies in the 
late afternoon, potentially bringing us more storms in the late 
afternoon into the overnight hours. While CAMs are showing 
northwestern Yuma county will see a decaying supercell, around 3-7Z, 
giving this portion of the CWA a brief hail and wind threat as the 
storm(s) fall apart. However, there will also be an elevated weak 
warm front extending from around Yuma, CO to Scott City, KS where 
additional storms may form. Details are very murky as of now, but 
the take away is there is another overnight severe weather potential 
tomorrow night with 1-1.5 inch hail and 50-60 MPH winds being the 
main threats. High temperatures tomorrow are expected to warm into 
the low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Sunday, the pattern looks to remain largely the same as the ridge 
continues to push in farther from the southwest and the low over 
Missouri slows exits to the east. The Goodland CWA looks to be on 
the northeastern edge of the ridge, so we can still expect to see 
some shortwave systems impacting the area, allowing us to see some 
isolated, daily storms through Monday afternoon. This continues 
until Tuesday evening when a large trough is expected to enter from 
the Pacific northwest and push the high back south. This looks to be 
our next good chance at storms and we have a 15% outlook from SPC 
for this risk. As this trough pushes farther east, there will be 
multiple waves of divergence that will promote storm development 
through around Thursday night.

Around Friday morning, give or take a day, the high looks to move 
back north, into the Great Plains, blocking us from the jet for a 
good portion of the weekend. This will cause temperatures to climb 
and keep any good chances at precipitation at bay. This will 
increase the potential for critical fire weather conditions, so we 
will be keeping a close eye on that.

High temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be in the 90s, with 
100 not out of the question. Wednesday and probably Thursday, 
temperatures look to be capped about 7-10 degrees cooler, before the 
high returns. When the high returns late next week, we can expect 
mid 90s to low 100s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 459 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast, but thunderstorms are
forecast to impact the terminal this evening and into tonight.
Current best time is between 02-05Z, but storms could be there
as early as 00Z (if low chance isolated storms form) and as late
as 13Z if outflows continue to kick up storms through the
night. Storms would likely increase wind to at least 35 kts, but
could be much higher to 60 kts in the strongest storms. Large
hail would also be a concern. After 13Z, chances for storms and
showers are forecast to decrease. Will need to watch for some 
low stratus clouds to move in behind the storms with ceilings
potentially down to a few hundred feet. By 15Z, everything
should be clear with winds from the southeast around 15 kts.

For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast, but thunderstorms are
forecast to impact the terminal this evening and into tonight.
Be alert for pop up storms anytime in the first 6 hours. The
best chance for storms is when the main line is forecast to move
through around 04-08Z. Storms could then linger until 12Z,
depending on if there is additional development along outflows.
After 12Z, conditions should be clear with winds from the
southeast around 15kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK