National Weather Service Raw Text Product

774 
FXUS65 KGGW 190837
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
237 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Look for warm and dry weather today. 

- Thunderstorms chances will begin tonight and increase Friday and
  Friday night as a cold front moves through the region. Some
  storms could become severe.

- Cool and wet weather is expected this weekend.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper ridging will bring warm and dry conditions across the 
region today, with highs in the 80s and lower 90s. Flow aloft
turns to the SW this evening as ridge moves to the east and
shortwave trough moves into eastern Montana. This will bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight which will continue
on Friday ahead of a cold front. SPC has areas south of the
Missouri River in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms tonight
and the east in a slight risk on Friday and Friday night with the
remainder of the region in a marginal risk which is reasonable
given the increasing instability and moisture expected ahead of
the front. 

The cold front moves to the east Friday night and becomes quasi-
stationary over the Dakotas over the weekend. Upper trough/low
will move through the Pacific NW Friday and Saturday, western 
Montana and Alberta Saturday night and Montana and Saskatchewan
Sunday and Sunday night with cool and wet weather. Rainfall
forecast are highly variable between the models and ensembles at
this point as waves of precipitation mixed in with dry slots are
expected and models vary in timing with these features at this
point. In general, more rain is expected is expected north and
less rain is expected south. The probability for one inch or more
rain between tonight and Sunday varies from around 60% northwest 
to less than 10% southeast over the forecast area.  

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue at times early
next week with gradually warmer temperatures. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

High confidence on the warm weather today. Low confidence on rain
chances tonight with medium to high confidence on rain chances 
Friday and Friday night. No deviations from the NBM at this time. 

 

&&

.AVIATION...
Flight Category: VFR today and tonight. 

Discussion: Look for some mid and high clouds at times along with
daytime cumulus today in otherwise mostly clear skies. Mid level
clouds will move into the area tonight with chances for showers
and thunderstorms. 

Winds: Light and variable this morning becoming WNW 5 to 15 knots
this afternoon and north 5 to 10 knots tonight. 

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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