National Weather Service Raw Text Product

985 
FXUS64 KFWD 181826
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
126 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance (20-30%) of thunderstorms this afternoon
  and tonight in North Texas and eastern Central Texas. A few of
  the storms in North Texas could become severe with large hail
  and damaging winds.

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions are forecast into early next
  week with little chance for rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Thursday Afternoon/

An outflow boundary from this morning's convection remains draped
across our northeastern counties, but has become increasingly 
washed out. The strongest convergence signal is now confined to 
our northeast where winds remains a bit more east-southeast and 
temperatures/dew points are a few degrees lower than surrounding 
observation sites. An MCV continues to swirl eastward across the 
region early this afternoon, now generally located east of I-35, 
where scattered mid-level elevated showers can be observed on 
radar. Additional isolated development is beginning to be observed
in our southeast thanks to diurnal heating and warm air 
advection. 

We'll need to keep an eye on two separate areas of storm 
development this afternoon, particularly near the Red River and in
our southeast. A warm, moist, and unstable airmass is present, 
with latest RAP analysis showing 2000-3000 J/kg of instability and
lapse rates around 7-8 degC/km. Enough shear will be present to 
aid in a severe threat of large hail and damaging winds, 
particularly in our north-northeast zones this afternoon. However,
coverage will be quite limited as there is not much of a focused 
lifting mechanism across our area aside from the eastern edge of 
the passing MCV. Have expanded the 20-30% PoPs across our east and
north areas this afternoon to account for this potential. To our 
north, a cold front continues to slowly move south towards North 
Texas, and will stall out just to our northwest this evening. The 
front will bring better ascent to account for more scattered 
convection tonight into Thursday morning. Most of this activity 
will likely remain across Oklahoma, but our Red River and North 
Texas counties could see additional strong to severe storms 
tonight with a hail and wind threat. 

Showers and storms will eventually come to an end over the early
morning hours on Thursday, leaving behind a warm and humid
start to the day. Low temperatures will only drop into the 70s 
tomorrow morning. Expect another muggy afternoon with highs in the
90s and peak heat indices in the mid 90s to around 101. Make sure
to keep hydrated and cool!

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 203 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025/
/Friday through Tuesday/

Mid level ridging will expand and encompass much of the central
and eastern CONUS this weekend into early next week. This will
effectively end precipitation chances for the region for the
foreseeable future. Hot and humid daily conditions are expected
with temperatures in the mid 90s and heat indices between 100-105
degrees each afternoon. By early next week the center of the ridge
axis will shift far enough eastward to allow some deeper east and
southeast flow into TX. This should result in an uptick in diurnal
sea breeze showers and thunderstorms to our southeast, some of
which will likely encroach on our Central TX counties. Rain
chances will remain less than 10% across the region Friday through
Tuesday.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Occasionally gusty south winds and VFR will prevail at all TAF 
sites the rest of today. An eastward-moving MCV is currently 
producing scattered showers just east of D10, and have included a 
short duration of VCTS for our eastern 3 airports through 19-20Z 
until the MCV exits the region. Additional storm development 
across portions of North Texas is possible this afternoon and 
evening near an incoming cold front and lingering outflow 
boundary, but coverage will be sparse enough and confidence in 
direct impacts is too low to include another mention of thunder in
D10 at this time. Some storms could produce frequent lightning, 
large hail, and damaging winds, but this will be more of an 
isolated nature. Any convection in Central Texas should remain 
east of ACT.

Winds will begin to die down tonight, settling around 10 KT or so
at all sites. A surge in MVFR stratus is expected to move
northward after midnight, with best chances across ACT, and lower
in our eastern D10 sites. Have included a TEMPO for MVFR cigs 
from 12-16Z at DAL/DFW/GKY. We'll need to see just how far west
this deck makes it before including it for FTW/AFW.

Prater

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  95  77  95  78 /  20   5   0   0   0 
Waco                75  93  75  93  75 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               73  90  74  92  74 /  30  10   5   5   0 
Denton              75  94  75  96  76 /  20   5   0   0   0 
McKinney            76  93  76  94  76 /  20   5   0   5   0 
Dallas              77  96  78  96  78 /  20   5   0   0   0 
Terrell             75  92  74  92  75 /  20   5   5   0   0 
Corsicana           76  93  76  93  76 /  10   5   5   0   0 
Temple              75  94  74  94  74 /   0   5   0   5   0 
Mineral Wells       74  95  74  97  75 /  20   5   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$