National Weather Service Raw Text Product

447 
FXUS63 KFGF 121200
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
700 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Probabilties of 1 inch of rain or more is over 70% 18z
  Thursday to 18z Friday for far SE ND into west central MN

- Risk of strong or severe storms looks more on Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Confidence in how this rain system will evolve and rain amounts
remain much lower than usual for a system within 24 hours. 06z
ECMWF shifts main rain south a bit and HRRR/RAP and high res
Canadian are also a bit more south now more into northeast SD
into St Cloud vs in our far south fcst area. Something to watch
unfold today. 


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...Synopsis...

We will be entering a period when forecast confidence will be
low due to the timing differences, strengths and track of
individual 500 mb short waves that will move through
predominately westerly 500 mb flow across the northern tier of
the U.S. Initially the track of these short waves are more
across South Dakota into southern Minnesota but early next week
the track of these will be farther north as 500 mb ridge builds
and the northern edge of instability creeps north, this is
especially true Monday, which overall now appears to the day to
watch for any severe potential. 

...Heavy Rainfall possible this afternoon into tonight southeast
ND into west central MN...

500 mb short wae is over southern Montana near Billings. It will
move east into tonight along the ND/SD border into central MN.
The 850 mb low will follow same track or just a tad south thru
far northern SD into central MN. These tracks are a bit farther
north than prev model fcsts were showing. PWATs increase to 1.50
inch near the 850 mb low track and there is 40 kts 850 mb winds
bringing up richer 850 mb moisture into western MN late
today/evening. Thus conditions are more favorable now that a
band of heavy rainfall will develop and be centered near the 850
mb low track....far northeast SD/far southeast ND then east into
central MN. Probs from NBM and WPC QPF show highest rainfall
amounts 2-3 inches in that zone from Sisseton east thru Elbow 
Lake MN to Little Falls MN. The northern edge of the rain area
still looks like about Highway 2 with, with only very light rain
chances north of there to the border.  

Conditions going into this rain event are such that the area can
withstand a steady rain giving up to 2 inches in that small 60
mile zone.   

...Weekend into Next Week T-storm chances...

Looking over model data, ensembles, severe chances via CSU and
probs for MU and surface CAPE...it looks like the main focus for
any strong or severe storms will be Monday, not Sunday. Saturday
itself looks like a very low shower chance day. Sunday has a
chance for a few showers or t-storms....but main wave now
appears to move thru ND/northwest MN Monday and this time period
from 18z Monday to 00z Tuesday shows prob for more than 1000
j/kg sfc CAPE over 70 pct into SE ND along with sufficient bulk
shear 0-6 km 35 kts or so. There is a tight gradient northward
on how far instability will get...focus seems to be SE ND/SD/MN
border area focused 21z Mon to 00z Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Rain area later today and tonight will mainly affect southeast
ND into west central MN....FAR to DTL to PKD and south. Chances
for rain is considerably less farther north and too low at this
time to include as predominate in DVL, GFK, TVF and BJI.
Northern areas as well likely to remain VFR cloud base into
tonight, while southern areas (FAR) may drop into the lower end
of MVFR this evening in rain. After daybreak predominate east
wind today 10 to 20 kts. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle