National Weather Service Raw Text Product

890 
FXUS62 KCAE 121026
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
626 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The region begins to transition to a more summerlike pattern.
Hot and humid conditions, along with less organized and more 
typical pulse storms are expected. This pattern will persist 
into the weekend and through the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Typical summertime scattered convection expected this 
  afternoon into this evening, coverage maybe greater than was 
  seen Wednesday. 
- Muggy conditions with heat indices between 95-100F possible. 

High pressure remains off the Southeast coast today as a 
diffuse surface front remains stalled across the FA today, 
moving little through the day and into Friday. The morning is 
starting out with some patchy fog and a stratus deck as plenty 
of low level moisture is lingering but this should quick burn 
off, giving way to scattered to broken cumulus clouds, though 
southerly low level flow will allow afternoon highs to reach the
upper 80s to near 90 once again as dew points in the low 70s 
continue. One caveat is peak temperatures may be a bit lower in 
spots where convective initiation occurs prior to peak heating.
 
Overall, we are starting to get into a rinse and repeat pattern
with summertime pulse convection chances again this afternoon 
and into this evening. As was seen yesterday, the stalled front 
into the northern and central Midlands could provide an axis for
convective development after 17-19z while the sea breeze and 
outflow boundaries serve as other sources of forcing across the 
FA. There does appear to be a weak shortwave that will round the
off shore high and move in during the afternoon and evening, 
thus while scattered coverage is expected, convection could 
become a bit more widespread during the late afternoon through 
the early evening. The environment will be characterized by 
PWAT's near 2" and plenty of instability (SBCAPE between 1500 
and 2500 J/kg). Deep layer shear continues to be on the low end 
(around 10-15 kts) and thus another strong pulse environment is 
expected where the main hazards would be potential downburst 
winds in collapsing updrafts and heavy rainfall. Due to the 
weaker steering flow some cells could remain over a given 
location for some time, contributing to this heavy rainfall 
risk. This forcing from the shortwave and lingering elevated 
instability also may allow showers/storms to continue into the 
early overnight before largely dissipating into Friday morning 
with lows once again in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- High aloft and a the surface will bring summerlike conditions
  to the region. This pattern will also bring diurnally driven 
  showers and storms.

Surface high pressure off the southeastern coast will continue
to bring moisture inland through Saturday. In addition, ridging
aloft remains off the Ga coast. The surface trough that has been
situated across the forecast area will be mostly gone. So, with
no significant surface boundaries across the area, afternoon 
convection each day will be highly dependent upon sea-breeze 
moving inland, weak remnant boundaries from previous days 
convection, and any shortwave energy moving across the area. 
For the most part, scattered to numerous showers and storms 
should be seen during peak heating. Although temperatures will 
remain near normal, high moisture will bring heat index values
into the middle 90s for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s): 

- A continuation of the high aloft and at the surface will
  continue to keep summerlike conditions across the area. This 
  pattern will also bring diurnally driven showers and storms.

Little change in the upper and surface patterns will mean that
much of the region will be experiencing a typical summer time
period of temperatures with readings slightly above normal, 
high heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s, and 
scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms each 
day through the longer term period. Can not completely rule out
the need for heat advisories late in the longer term forecast
based on latest forecast apparent temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR to IFR restrictions are now being seen with periods of 
LIFR possible this morning. More restrictions associated with 
storms possible this afternoon into this evening. Another bout
of stratus and restrictions are expected tonight.

The stratus deck that has been over the eastern Midlands has 
now slowly shifted northward near CAE/CUB and fully over OGB. 
This is bringing LIFR ceilings at OGB while CAE/CUB are seeing 
SCT stratus and MVFR visibility due to fog at this time, though 
periods of IFR ceilings due to the stratus deck will be possible
for the next couple hours. For AGS/DNL it appears the stratus 
deck is remaining mostly south of the terminals with only 
periods of SCT to BKN ceilings here and thus any ceiling 
restrictions this morning will be fairly spotty here. AGS has 
been seeing periods of MVFR visibility restrictions however with
some fog. These periods of IFR to LIFR restrictions last until 
around 13-14z before the stratus will start to mix out. This 
afternoon sees cumulus and scattered showers/storms after 
17-19z, though coverage is expected to be slightly greater than 
yesterday and thus at this time I have maintained the PROB30 at 
all sites through this afternoon into early this evening. Winds 
look to be light (5-7kts) out of the south to south-southeast 
through the day today before LAMP and CONSSHORT guidance suggest
another round of stratus and associated restrictions will be 
possible after 06-10z tonight and into Friday morning. 

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief flight restrictions are 
possible during the late week with typical summertime 
thunderstorms throughout each day and into the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$