National Weather Service Raw Text Product

643 
FXUS63 KBIS 121127
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
627 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near surface smoke will continue across North Dakota today.

- Medium to high chances (40 to 80 percent) of showers across 
  much of the area today through tonight, with a few 
  thunderstorms possible across the south.

- Cooler today and Friday, with highs in the 60s, before 
  warming back up through the weekend.

- Near daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through the 
  weekend and into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Showers are ongoing across the southwest, slowly expanding
eastward through the morning. Some smoke continues lingering as
well, though visibilities have largely improved. All in all, the
forecast remains mostly on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

An approaching shortwave and associated surface low are present
to our west, slowly moving east towards the Dakotas as the 
morning progresses. Showers have begun forming just to the south
and west of our border, slowly making their way into our far 
southwestern counties. The current expectation is that chances 
for rain will increase and slowly expand northeastward through 
the day, covering most of our area by around 1 PM. Instability 
is expected to be minimal, with maybe around 300-400 J/kg across
the far south through the day, so thunderstorm development is 
expected to be on the lower end. If thunderstorms develop, 
severe weather is unlikely. Breezy winds can be expected for 
much of the area as well, as temperatures cool and the surface 
pressure gradient tightens due to the strengthening of the 
aforementioned surface low moving to our south. Highs will 
generally be in the 60s today, with maybe some lower 70s in the 
north, being the areas impacted the least by this system. The 
other main concern today will be near surface smoke, which at 
the moment is still present for much of the area. The HRRR 
pushes the near surface smoke out as the precipitation moves in,
though the confidence in this is still rather low. At the very 
least, smoke will stay lofted with continued hazy conditions and
milky skies. This round of precipitation will move out of the 
area by late tonight. Overall QPF values still remain around a 
quarter to a half inch across much of the area, with lower 
totals across the north. Some local enhancements may drop some 
higher totals across the southern James River Valley as well.

After this system moves through, flow aloft becomes generally 
zonal, with a slight southwesterly component, hopefully helping 
keep near surface smoke at bay for a while. Surface moisture 
return ramps up beginning Friday as well, along with 
temperatures beginning to warm back up towards normal, with 
highs generally in the 70s and possibly some lower 80s at times.
Aloft, the pattern begins to pick up in activity, with various 
shortwaves passing through the flow, leading to enhanced lift 
and ample amounts of shear. As a result, we can expect a typical
summertime pattern beginning this weekend and continuing into 
next week, with daily chances for diurnally driven showers and 
thunderstorms. The potential for severe weather also begins to 
increase a bit, with multiple long range severe guidance 
suggesting at least low probabilities for severe weather on 
various days, with the highest chances in the south. Confidence 
in receiving rainfall in general does remain decent, with 
chances for rain ranging anywhere from 30 to 70 percent on any 
given day. At the moment, it seems like both the greatest 
chances for rain overall as well as severe weather appear to be 
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Mostly VFR visibilities are present this morning, though some 
denser smoke continue to linger across the north central and 
KMOT, resulting in some MVFR visibilities. Through the morning, 
visibilities should improve, as a wave of precipitation has 
begun moving into the area from the southwest. By midday, 
widespread MVFR ceilings and visibility due to rain showers are 
expected, with conditions deteriorating further towards the end 
of the TAF period, notably across the south where IFR ceilings 
will cover much of the area, impacting KBIS, KDIK, and KJMS. 
LIFR ceilings may be locally possible across the southwest at 
times towards the end of the TAF period as well. Breezy 
southeasterly winds can be expected, generally ranging from 15 
to 20 kts sustained, with some gusts up to 25 kts, during the 
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Besson
DISCUSSION...Besson
AVIATION...Besson