National Weather Service Raw Text Product

576 
FXUS64 KAMA 201120
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
620 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Latest 08Z observations shows precipitation beginning to develop
across the southern Texas High Plains, with more scant moisture
sources along with anemic rain showers further to the north 
across eastern New Mexico. Satellite analysis shows a series of 
mid level perturbations across NM and eastern AZ, just out ahead 
of the main H500 trough axis currently over western AZ. These 
localized areas of lift moving from WSW to ENE across the 
southern Plains today will be the foci of several rain chances. 
Chances range from 10-30% for the northern Panhandles to 30-60% 
for the southern Texas Panhandle overall for today. Throughout the
daytime hours for today, the southern Texas Panhandle will have 
its best chance for rainfall, and even a thunderstorm or two 
cannot be ruled out. Moisture return from the richer source down 
in central and the Gulf Coast area will attempt to advect into the
southern areas of the CWA. If moisture is not displaced from 
earlier developed convection further south, the northern edge of 
the area of rainfall may reach as far north as the Highway 60 
corridor. This aforementioned H500 trough will move east through 
the Texas South Plains before exiting to the east into the Red 
River valley by this evening. As one perturbation exits the 
region, a second perturbation from the the central Rockies 
associated with a localized strip of PVA centered over the Dakotas
by this evening, this will aid in additional rainfall chances for
the northern Panhandles tonight. Moisture with this second 
perturbation may be in more limited supply. Similar to the 
perturbation earlier in the day today, with limited moisture 
influx into the region, total QPF values should be quite light, 
but at least most of the Panhandles will have some chance of rain 
today. Rain chances drop off will wrap up to night with a sct 
rain shower possible for the far eastern Panhandles before 
sunrise tomorrow morning. 

Although the latest 20/00Z model and numerical data coming in drop
off our sub freezing temperatures chances for tonight, likely due
to lingering cloud cover, will still keep the Freeze Watch for
tonight for the northern Panhandles. Any decrease in cloud 
coverage or earlier exit of the precipitation will in crease our 
chances for low temperatures that are impactful to the start of 
the growing season. Will have to watch trends carefully. 

After high temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s due
to cloud cover rain rain chances, skies will slowly clear out from
west to east tomorrow, warming up highs a bit. Still below average
for mid April but highs tomorrow will range from the upper 50s to
mid 60s.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Model agreement continues to portray a more active weather 
pattern next week for the Panhandles. Despite the activity, 
temperatures will look to rebound towards a more seasonal normal 
with most locations climbing back into the 70s to low 80s by the 
mid-week, which could peak at the end of the work week with highs 
closer to the mid 80s.

For the Monday through the mid-week, general model agreement sees
the upper-level pattern shift more zonal across the Panhandles. 
This zonal pattern, will aid in letting a series of short-wave 
trough move across each day and introduce chances of showers in 
the afternoon. For Monday, chances dont start start too great 
with current guidance seeing conditions too dry with most of the 
panhandles seeing dewpoints below 40. However, chances will slowly
increase over the next couple of days thanks to a shift in the 
850 mb flow that will see warm air advection and moisture move in.
By Wednesday, dewpoints have the potential to rise into the 50s 
with Pops rising above 30% across the eastern half the Panhandles.

Of course these conditions will all accumulated into the main
system expected to arrive sometime Thursday. While there is still
quite a lot to work out between models, general consensus is
expecting a new trough to dip south into Kansas and/or Nebraska.
For us in the Panhandles, this set up usually results in one of
three things. Those three things are either a good severe weather
day, a critical fire weather day, or (in most cases) a mix of the
two. Of course, what will determine most of this will be the final
position of the dryline for the day. Anything that is east of the
dry line will see enough moisture and instability available for
severe weather, while the westward side will see hot, dry, and
windy conditions great enough for fires to become hard to contain.
Currently guidance, does give us a shot with chances of
precipitation sitting around 30 to 40% that afternoon. However,
confidence in such a call this far out is not the greatest as
mesoscale features will play a key role in the final say for the
position of the dryline. Either way, more chances for
precipitation may follow the weekend as a secondary trough does
look to move in immediately after. 

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected to start the 12Z TAF period at all TAF
sites. We continue to watch the potential for MVFR cigs to reach 
KAMA from the SW within the first few hours of the TAF period. 
Towards the end of the TAF period, all TAF sites should have MVFR
cig, sometime after 06Z Sunday. Winds will be out of the east and
southeast at 5-15 kts with higher gusts at times.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                50  38  59  39 /  50  20   0   0 
Beaver OK                  55  34  63  39 /  30  20   0   0 
Boise City OK              52  33  63  39 /  30  30   0   0 
Borger TX                  56  40  64  41 /  30  20   0   0 
Boys Ranch TX              53  39  63  40 /  40  20   0   0 
Canyon TX                  50  38  59  37 /  50  30   0   0 
Clarendon TX               50  40  58  38 /  60  30   0   0 
Dalhart TX                 51  33  61  36 /  20  20   0   0 
Guymon OK                  53  33  63  38 /  20  20   0   0 
Hereford TX                50  38  60  39 /  60  30   0   0 
Lipscomb TX                55  38  63  40 /  30  20   0   0 
Pampa TX                   53  38  60  40 /  30  20   0   0 
Shamrock TX                53  40  61  39 /  60  20   0   0 
Wellington TX              53  41  60  38 /  70  30   0   0 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for 
     TXZ001>003-006-007.

OK...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for 
     OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...29