National Weather Service Raw Text Product

258 
FXUS61 KALY 191104
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
704 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather day is expected across eastern New York and 
western New England today. Dangerous heat and humidity returns ahead 
of a strong cold front, which will result in strong to severe late 
afternoon and evening thunderstorms with damaging winds the 
main hazard. After a brief reprieve Friday, another round of 
showers and storms is possible Saturday before dangerous heat 
and humidity returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages: 

- Enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across 
  portions of the Mid Hudson Valley, slight risk (Level 2 of 5) 
  elsewhere.

- Damaging winds will be the primary threat with severe 
  thunderstorms that develop.

_ Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of the Hudson 
  Valley where heat indices will climb around to above 95 degrees 
  this afternoon.

Discussion: 

Update as of 615 AM EDT...Minor adjustment to POPs to account
for rain showers that developed across Warren Co this morning,
otherwise no significant changes made to the forecast in this
update. See previous discussion below...

[PREVIOUS DISCUSSION]...Early morning surface analysis 
depicted a surface low across southern Michigan, with a warm 
front draped to the northeast across southern Ontario into 
Quebec. A cold front was to the southwest of the surface low 
across northern Indiana into the western Ohio River Valley. 
Ahead of this system, showers and storms were ongoing from 
western New York into eastern Ohio.

As we head through the morning, this surface low and its 
accompanying fronts will progress northeast, with the surface low 
tracking across the warm front into Ontario and Quebec by early 
afternoon. Ahead of the front, eastern NY and western New England 
will be firmed entrenched in the warm sector with southwesterly flow 
advecting in very warm low-level temps around 15-18 C. Fcst 
soundings depict low-level mixing of this air down to the surface, 
which will translate to PM highs climbing into the 80s to low 90s 
outside of the higher terrain of the ADKs, Catskills and southern 
Greens. Dewpoints will also remain high with additional moisture 
advection (PWATs of around 1.50-1.80") across the region, with 
several locations seeing values in the low 70s by mid morning. The 
combination of this heat and humidity will lead to a brief period of 
heat indices climbing around to just above 95 F mainly in the Hudson 
Valley, where a Heat Advisory remains in effect from midday through 
this evening.

In addition to the heat, increased forcing from the approaching 
surface low, shortwave/jet streak aloft and the surface cold 
front/pre-frontal trough will interact with the unstable environment 
and lead to the development of afternoon and evening showers and 
storms. Severe storms remain possible with the ample forcing and 
vertical shear aloft for storm organization, especially across the 
Mid Hudson Valley which will be nearer to better forcing with the 
jet streak aloft. Here, the Storm Prediction Center has increased 
the severe threat to Level 3 (enhanced), with a Level 2 (slight) 
across the remainder of eastern NY and western New England. 
Regardless of location, the primary hazard with severe storms that 
develop will be damaging winds (strong low-level lapse rates 
favoring high DCAPEs and momentum transfer), with a lower secondary 
risk of large hail and tornadoes. As far as timing, while most CAMs 
are in disagreement of exact timing of the storms with the 
prefrontal trough and the actual front, the window is around 100PM - 
800PM for storm development and track across the region.

Storms should exit the region this evening as the cold front sweeps 
through the region. Additional rain showers will be possible nearer 
to the surface low track in the ADKs overnight, but most will be 
trending drier and cooler with lows dropping into the upper 50s to 
lower 60s outside of higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages: 

- Low chance of rain showers Friday and Friday night.

- Near normal temperatures Friday warming back above normal Saturday.

- Showers and storms possible Saturday night with a low risk of 
  severe thunderstorms.

Discussion: 

Much of eastern NY and western New England will enjoy a dry day 
Friday with temperatures near normal with weak high pressure passing 
overhead. There is low chance of rain showers mainly in the higher 
terrain of the ADKs as a weak shortwave passes across the region in 
northwest flow aloft. Highs outside of higher terrain Friday will 
climb into the upper 70s to low 80s, with overnight lows in the 50s 
to low 60s.

Ridging will strengthen rather quickly across the area Saturday with 
a warm front lifting across the region, with low-level temperatures 
climbing to around 15 C Saturday afternoon. With a mix of sun and 
clouds expected for most, PM highs should easily climb into the low 
to mid 80s outside of higher terrain.

Saturday evening and overnight, will need to keep an eye on 
potential for showers and storms as guidance is hinting at a 
decaying ridge runner MCS moving into Quebec/New York from the 
northern Great Lakes. There is a low threat of severe weather 
with this MCS, as the Storm Prediction Center has locations 
along and west of I-87 in a Level 1 (marginal risk). With 
disagreement on the timing and strength of the complex, opted 
for NBM POPs which keep low to medium chances (40-60%) of 
showers and storms for the region, with higher values favored 
more in the ADKs. Please continue to monitor the forecast as
details become more clear. Lows will be much warmer in 
comparison to Friday night with values in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence exists in a prolonged period of dangerously
  hot and humid conditions beginning early through the middle 
  of next week with the most dangerous of these conditions 
  falling to Monday and Tuesday.

- Large valley areas show a 60 to nearly 100% probability for greater
  than 90 degree temperatures Monday and Tuesday with nearly 
  regionwide probabilities of 90 to 100% for at least 85 degrees
  on these same days. 

- Average heat indices Monday and Tuesday look to widely range from 
  90 to low 100s. 

Discussion:

Lingering light, scattered showers persist on the heels of an upper-
level shortwave and associated surface low Sunday morning, primarily 
in our higher terrain regions, before the combination of the 
departure of the system and the onset of large-scale subsidence
in the face of a high-amplitude ridge nosing northward ensures 
the reinforcement of dry conditions. This ridge will then 
become the feature of primary concern throughout the remainder 
of the extended forecast period...

A broad surface anticyclone will begin to build over the Southeast 
before the start of the long term forecast period, gradually 
amplifying and expanding north and westward beginning Sunday. Strong 
upper-level ridging aloft will attend the surface high, spreading 
across the Northeast by as early as late Sunday night. Resulting 
rises in geopotential height, large-scale subsidence, and subsequent 
warming aloft will send temperatures on a fairly accelerated warming 
trend through the middle of the week. Sunday will therefore be the 
inception of this trend with highs rising into the 80s to low 90s 
with the exception of isolated pockets of upper 70s at higher 
elevations. Monday will then see values achieve the mid/upper 80s to 
upper 90s as the ridge begins to crest across the region. Tuesday's 
highs will be fairly similar with little deamplification expected in 
the ridge aloft and the surface high off to the south. To make 
matters more uncomfortable to the point of posing dangerous health 
impacts, dewpoints both on Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 
60s to low 70s. This will make for heat indices in the 90s and low 
100s which could cause significant impacts to health if proper 
precautions are not taken to mitigate heat-related illness. And, 
unfortunately, with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s Sunday night 
through Tuesday night pairing with similar dewpoint values, there 
won't be much of a reprieve from the oppressive heat. Heat 
Advisories will likely be needed in the near future, but for now, 
plan to drink plenty of water; limit time outdoors; make plans to 
remind yourself of children or pets in the back seats of your 
vehicles; and refresh your knowledge of heat-related illness 
symptoms. As this will be the first real period of oppressive heat 
of the season, it will be that much easier to fall victim to such 
illnesses given the lack of acclamation to this type of environment. 

Temperatures Wednesday will still certainly retain the above-normal 
categorization, though the deamplification of the upper ridge and 
the shift south and east of the surface high at the hands of an 
upper-level disturbance will ensure values begin to trend downward. 
Expect primarily 80s to low 90s with pockets of upper 70s at higher 
elevations. Additionally, as a result of the aforementioned 
disturbance, showers and thunderstorms will be possible across much 
of the region Wednesday which will also help to cool temperatures 
down moving forward. Lows Wednesday will fall to the low 60s to near 
70.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12z Friday...IFR conditions prevail across all terminals
this morning as a result of a persistent low stratus deck.
Visible imagery already shows a breaking up of this cloud layer
and as we continue to mix out this morning, it should continue
to break apart further such that VFR conditions are returned
across the board. Latest guidance came in a bit different with
the thunderstorms for this afternoon, with more of a focused
area of convection within the Mid-Hudson Valley and western New
England, so made the former TEMPOs into PROB30 groups to convey
a bit more uncertainty. However, that said, the time period of
greatest likelihood for thunderstorms impacting the terminals
still seems to be around 18-23z with possible lingering storms
at KGFL between 23-02z. Thunderstorms that cross through the
terminals should force MVFR to IFR conditions but rapid clearing
behind them should quickly reinforce VFR conditions. Winds will
be breezy throughout the 12z period out of the south to south 
west at sustained speeds ranging from 10 to 15 kt and gusts of
20 to 25 kt. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing stronger
gusts, however, with at least 30 to 40 kt expected and stronger
with any stronger to severe storms. 

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening 
     for NYZ052-053-059-060-064-065.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck/Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Gant