National Weather Service Raw Text Product

980 
FXAK68 PAFC 221318
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
518 AM AKDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

A front lifting north across the Gulf today will bring increased 
chances for scattered rain showers to portions of Southcentral today 
and tomorrow. Cloud cover has already increased ahead of this front 
and light radar returns were noted over the Barren Islands moving 
north towards the southern Kenai Peninsula. As the front lifts north 
across the Kenai later this morning and early afternoon, showers 
will begin to spread up the Cook Inlet towards the Anchorage Bowl 
and Mat-Su. Models are in good agreement with the mid-level front 
stalling over Prince William Sound westwards into the Susitna Valley 
by early Monday morning. A secondary wave will lift in behind this 
front as the parent low over the central Bering pivots eastwards to 
the Bristol Bay/AKPEN region. Increasing lift over the stalled front 
will result in rain showers becoming more widespread with a modest 
precipitation band setting up from the Susitna Valley over to the 
northern Gulf coast. The band will slowly lift north Monday becoming 
more scattered as lift decreases over the region. 

Temperatures will cool a bit over the next several days with the 
increase in cloud cover and showery conditions. Thunderstorm 
potential will shift north of the Wrangells towards the eastern 
Alaska Range and the interior where the instability axis will set-
up. The Copper Basin will see warm temperatures again today with a 
period of breezy winds for the southern Basin, but increasing 
moisture will keep fire weather concerns in check today. Scattered 
showers and cooler temperatures will also move into the Copper Basin 
Monday with additional showers expected Tuesday. Mid and long range 
models have this more unsettled weather pattern persisting through 
much of the upcoming workweek.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS 
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...

The large upper-level low that has sat around the Central
Aleutians the last couple of days has elongated and moved towards
the Pribilof Islands this morning. A complex surface low with
centers to the west of the Pribilofs and just north of the Central
Aleutians will continue drift and rotate around each other 
through today. Expect showery and misty conditions to continue 
today and into Monday across the Eastern Aleutians, Pribilofs, and
southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN). Gusty southeast winds across 
the southern AKPEN, especially through Cold Bay, will slowly 
diminish starting this evening. 

The next big weather-maker for the Aleutians and Bering Sea will 
come in the form of a front and low moving eastward from 
Kamchatka. The gale-force front moves into the Western Aleutians 
and western Bering Sea this evening. The front weakens to high-end
small-craft by Monday morning as it reaches the Central 
Aleutians. The front then weakens further as it makes it to the
Eastern Aleutians and Pribilof Islands Monday evening and the
southern AKPEN on Tuesday. The heaviest rain will be confined to
Western and Central Aleutians with light rain elsewhere across the
Bering and Chain. Warm air will advect across the Western and
Central Aleutians behind this front from west to east starting
Monday. This will bring the chance for some fog and mist to
develop after the steady rain ends. Gusty westerly winds up to
gale-force will also persist across the southwestern to 
southcentral Bering with the low moving into the northwest Bering 
late Monday into Tuesday and high pressure remaining to south in 
the North Pacific. Shower chances remain across the Bering,
Aleutian Chain, Pribilofs, and southern AKPEN for Wednesday as the
low moves into the central Bering by then.

Meanwhile, scattered showers will continue along the mainland 
southwest coast today, with perhaps isolated showers developing 
inland. Most of mainland Southwest Alaska remains on the cooler 
and cloudy side with temperatures in the interior only getting 
into the low to mid-60s and coast remaining in the 50s. Greater 
shower chances arrive for Monday and Tuesday in the interior, 
especially along the Western Alaska Range, when the 500 mb trough
axis in the eastern Bering/Bristol Bay begins to become negatively
tilted and slowly lifts northward through the area. Right now, the
chance for lightning strikes in the interior with the upcoming
showery activity for Monday and Tuesday is low due to increased
cloud cover and the best day-time heating and instability being
north and in the Yukon Valley. For Wednesday, the Bering front
that will bring rain and gusty winds across the Aleutian Chain 
over the next couple of days will make it to the mainland
Southwest coast. The front will be in a weakened state by this
time, but will still deliver southeast winds along the Kuskokwim
Bay and Bristol Bay coasts. Most rain will remain along the coast
with the potential for some scattered showers inland. 

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Beginning to get a little more motion in the weather systems 
across the Alaska region through the forecast period. A closed 
upper level low over the Central Bering begins its trek across the
Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska by the weekend. Several 
shortwaves rotating through the pattern help accelerate its 
movement, and help set up some Easterly wave conditions across 
Southcentral Alaska. The upper level ridge across the Northern 
portions of Mainland Alaska drift into the Arctic through 
Saturday. Forecast guidance begins with a deterministic blend of 
GFS / ECMWF and Canadian models that diverge early in the period, 
so a change to ensemble means will carry the large scale features 
through the rest of the forecasts.

Diminishing warmer temperatures over Interior Alaska helps draw 
down the possibilities of convective activity across the Central 
Alaska, with the last of the showers and thunderstorms occurring 
in the Eastern border zones. A slowly weakening surface low near 
the Pribilofs slips across the AKPEN into the Central Gulf of 
Alaska by the weekend. Windy conditions close to gale force slips 
over the Western and Central Aleutians for Wednesday. Gusty winds 
cross the Central Aleutians late Thursday into early Friday. 
Widespread rain over the Eastern Bering moves over Southwest 
Alaska, AKPEN and Kodiak Island through Friday and spread along 
the Southcentral coast through Saturday. Gusty Easterly winds set 
up over the Northern Gulf of Alaska late Friday into Saturday. A 
moderately strong North Pacific low approaches the Western 
Aleutians with rain for Friday before heading back into the North 
Pacific for Saturday.

- Kutz

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through this afternoon.
Ceilings will begin to lower and chances for scattered showers
will increase tonight. There may be periods where ceilings drop to
MVFR, especially by Monday morning as precipitation chances
increase. Winds are expected to remain southwesterly today
becoming light and variable overnight.

&&


$$