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007 FXUS63 KABR 121116 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 616 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated smoke remains over the region with an intermittent return of near surface smoke and visibility reductions through Friday. - Showers and thunderstorms expected through Friday morning, with the highest chances (60-90%) along and east of the Sisseton Hills Thursday afternoon and evening. - Heavy rain is possible with amounts of 1 to 2+", highest over far northeastern SD into west central MN through tonight. - There is a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening south of Hwy 12. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 420 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Rain and thunderstorms continue to expand north and east of two features: a warm front draped along the NE/SD border and a 700 mb low currently over eastern MT with some shortwave energy ejecting out ahead of it. For now, the thunderstorms are pretty weak. Monitoring for heavy rain and potential flooding at the moment as rain trains over south central SD and the I-90 corridor. This heavy rain threat will spread northeast this afternoon through tonight as the front creeps north and the 700 mb low moves into eastern ND/MN. Additionally, thunderstorms may be rather slow moving. PWATS remain over an inch along and east of the Coteau. As the frontal boundary stretches northeast from Chamberlain to Spink/Clark county by 21z, there will be a narrow corridor of enhanced CAPE around 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Outside of this corridor, CAPE has a sharp gradient and remains sub-optimal for severe storms. Shear, on the other hand, is abundant across the region at 45 to 60 kts. Even though SPC took out the tornado threat from its outlook, NAM keeps a narrow corridor of 1 to 4 STP on the boundary over Buffalo, Hand and Hyde counties. While perhaps not the primary concern, there is a non-zero chance of tornadoes along the frontal boundary. Lapse rate between 7 and 8 behind the frontal boundary along with the shear could lend themselves to some stronger winds. Winds also shift to the soutwest ahead of the boundary tonight along the Coteau, setting up some stronger downslope winds regardless of thunderstorm activity. This system exits/retreats on Friday with just some scattered activity remaining outside of sfc high pressure over the northeast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 420 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 An active weather pattern can be expected through the long term portion of the forecast, and perhaps into the following weekend. A persistent trough off the coast of British Columbia will cause a broad west coast trough through a majority of the long term. While upper level ridging does develop over the nation's midsection, the northern plains will likely experience several ridge riding shortwaves. Timing of the shortwave are often problematic as minor differences in model data causes a broadbrush approach to NBM pops. The ECMWF brings increasing instability into the CWA Sunday through Tuesday, which may support multiple rounds of strong storms. The deep layer shear may be lacking some on Sunday, but become more robust Monday and Tuesday. Our lack of severe weather so far this season appears to be over. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 613 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect all taf sites today with a 700 mb low moving in from the west across the north and a frontal boundary to the south. Cigs are expected fall to MVFR/IFR this evening and overnight with and behind the frontal boundary, though guidance has initialized cigs a little low this morning so confidence is only low to moderate. Even less certain are visibilities which may fall to MVFR/IFR in heavier rain or with smoke that is drawn down to the surface. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...20