National Weather Service Raw Text Product

415 
FXUS61 KOKX 202129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
429 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
EVENING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY THEN BUILDS EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PRECEDING THE FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS SOME LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE SUB
CLOUD LAYER IS VERY DRY AND WILL LIKELY ONLY SUPPORT SOME
FLURRIES. WEAK COLD ADVECTION ENSUES WITH THE PASSING OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

ON THU...WEAK RIDGING BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET SENDING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SE
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WITH A CONTINUED FEED OF POLAR AIR. IN
FACT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL CANADA
WILL BEGIN TO BLEED EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LAYING DOWN THE
FOUNDATION FOR COLD AIR AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE TN VALLEY THU NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S BOTH THU AND FRI MORNINGS. THIS
IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUE TO MONITOR A COASTAL LOW THAT WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND THIS WEEKEND. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON THE EXACT
TRACK...BOTH IN TERMS OF HOW FAR NORTH THE STORM GOES AND
TIMING...AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM. ESPECIALLY NOTING REGION WILL BE
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OF THE STORM...THIS
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TRACKS EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE STORM SYSTEM THEN TOTAL OCCLUDES AS
IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTH AND MAYBE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PACE AT WHICH THE CUT OFF LOW AND THEN
OCCLUSION TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS
IN DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW. WHAT THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON IS THAT
A 1030 HPA HIGH BUILDS INTO S QUEBEC/ONTARIO BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND
THAT THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG AS IT RETREATS TO THE
NORTHEAST  TO KEEP A SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR FEEDING DOWN INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE STORM. AS A RESULT...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW
DURING THE EVENT.

THE MODELS HAVE IN GENERAL SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING WITH THE SYSTEM.
IT APPEARS THAT RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO KEEP THINGS DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN THEN
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW RAPIDLY SNOW PUSHES NE INTO THE
CWA...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE CWA DOES
NOT RECEIVE ANY SNOWFALL UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE STORM WILL BRING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION INTO ALL BUT NORTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY IN THOSE
AREAS. SATURDAY NIGHT HAVE LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE...TAPERING OFF TO
CHANCE OVER FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPPER
OFF OVER MOST AREAS SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE EASTERN 2/5THS OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING IN THE IDEA THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL OF
THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...WHERE RAIN
MIXING IN COULD LIMIT AMOUNTS. FARTHER NORTH...IT IS BECOMING MORE
CERTAIN THAT AN ADVISORY LEVEL (3-6 INCH RANGE) SNOWFALL SHOULD
OCCUR...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS FAR N PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/SW CT...WHERE 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. EVEN IN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS ARE STILL WITHIN THE REASONABLE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES
FOR THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...AND THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL
THE SNOW WILL NOT START FALLING UNTIL SATURDAY...HAVE DECIDED NOT
TO ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

NEXT ISSUE WITH THIS STORM WILL BE THE WINDS. WITH 950-850 HPA WINDS
OF 45-60 KT FORECAST FROM AREAS AROUND LONG ISLAND SOUND AND MOST OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS (SUSTAINED WINDS 31-39 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR ANY
GUST OF 46-57 MPH) COULD OCCUR WITH THIS STORM IN THIS AREA...FROM
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL
CHANCE THAT HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED OVER
PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY NYC AND COASTAL SE CT. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY THOUGH OVER THE TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE
STORM...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES WITH
THIS STORM.

WITH THESE WINDS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SNOWFALL...BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL OVER AREAS RECEIVING MAINLY SNOWFALL
AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...AND COULD REFLECT IN ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
WHICH ARE ISSUED IN THE FUTURE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-SUNDAY SHOULD RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. LOWS
SHOULD RUN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THERE ARE THEN SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARISE IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE PHASING OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET. THE 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE
GFS IS MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE ENERGY AND SENDS THE LONGWAVE
TROF TO THE EAST A BIT FASTER. THIS RESULTS IN TIMING ISSUES OF A
THE MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH PASSES ACROSS THE AREA TUE EVENING
WITH THE ECWMF...WHILE THE GFS SENDS MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS
THROUGH THE REGION TUE INTO WED. THE RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS IS DELAYED BY ABOUT 24H WITH THE GFS. FOR THE TIME...USED A
BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND DELAYED THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
AIR AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. DURING THIS TIME...TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AS FOR ANY PCPN...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKS NW OF
THE AREA. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX INLAND.
RIGHT NOW QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

VFR INTO THIS EVENING. CHC FLURRIES AFTER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

NW WINDS AROUND 10KT DIM 5-10KT THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW LATE. NE GUSTS 25KT LATE.
.SAT/SAT NIGHT...SNOW DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. NE WINDS AT 20-30 KT
WITH 40-50 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW AM. VFR PM. N GUSTS 25-30 KT.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND
CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE CANADA. GENERALLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDS
ON OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY INTO THU NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
JUST BELOW 25 KT...SO WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME ON ISSUING A SCA.

A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD
PRODUCE WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS ON FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES FAIRLY RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GALE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE NON-OCEAN
WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 950-850 WINDS INCREASING TO 50-
60KT OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MARGINAL TO
DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING POSSIBLE...GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE LIKELY
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THEN...WITH GUSTS TO GALES LIKELY AND
STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS...WITH WINDS FALLING TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN
ZONES...BY LATE SUNDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY SUN NIGHT WITH LINGERING HIGH SEAS
POSSIBLE INTO MON MORNING. 


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED TONIGHT-FRIDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROM AROUND 4/10THS TO AROUND 1 INCH
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TO FALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER LONG ISLAND/NEW YORK CITY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS
OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THESE
AMOUNTS...WITH A CHANGE IN STORM TRACK OF EVEN 10-25 MILES
POSSIBLY HAVING QUITE AN IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF WHICH OCCURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NOR'EASTER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND. THE MOST VULNERABLE HIGH
TIDE WOULD BE THE SATURDAY NIGHT CYCLE.

FOR SATURDAY MORNING STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. AROUND 1 1/2 TO 2 FT ANOMALIES
ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS ARE NEEDED.  FOR MODERATE CSTL
FLOODING...2 TO 3 FT ARE NEEDED. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE
BENCHMARKS BEING REACHED IN THE MORNING.

FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS
ARE ABOUT A HALF A FOOT LOWER THAT THE MORNING HIGH TIDES.
HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY WILL
PILE WATER ALONG OUR SHORES...AND LARGE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED.
AROUND 2 TO 2 1/2 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR CSTL
FLOODING...AND 3 TO 4 FT ABOVE ARE NEEDED FOR MODERATE CSTL FLOODING.

AT THIS TIME...MAINLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING MAJOR
FLOODING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN THIS OCCURRING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE STORM WILL BE PULLING AWAY AND WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS NOT AN IDEAL WIND DIRECTION FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. RESIDUAL CSTL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW