National Weather Service Raw Text Product

584 
FXUS61 KALY 100953
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION 
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION 
WITH SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 400 AM....STILL DEALING WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND 
FLURRIES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS WELL AS 
THE TERRAIN TO THE EAST. HOWEVER... THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY 
DWINDLE AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS PREVENT OPTIMAL SNOW GROWTH. 
ALSO THE FLOW IS SLOWLY BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC AS A SHORT WAVE PULLS 
AWAY. BOTH FORCES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO TODAY. 

STILL DEALING WITH A GUSTY NW WIND...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. 
OTHER AREAS HAVE SEEN THEIR WIND DIMINISH. STILL DEALING WITH PLENTY 
OF CLOUDS THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS 
TO MID 20S THROUGH THE REGION.

THROUGH 700 AM...LOOK FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY 
DWINDLE BUT STILL COULD ADD DUSTING TO NEARLY AN INCH IN A FEW 
REMOTE SPOTS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH A LITTLE AS WELL. 
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY A DROP A COUPLE OF POINTS GENERALLY BOTTOMING 
OUT IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CD FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 25 
MPH...LESSER ELSEWHERE.    
  
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ASIDE FROM LINGERING LAKE EFFECT MULTIBAND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND 
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY TODAY. HOWEVER...THAT WIND WILL 
CRANK UP ACROSS MOST PLACES...GENERALLY TO THE TUNE OF 15 TO 25 MPH. 
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH MORE SUNSHINE TO THE LEE OF 
THE CATSKILLS. BY THE END OF THE DAY...SUNSHINE LOOKS TO PREVAIL IN 
MOST PLACES. ANY AND ALL SNOW ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH. THE HIGH TODAY 
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...TOUCHING AROUND 30 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST 
OF ALBANY. 

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WIND 
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL 
DIMINISH. LOWS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS...MORE CLEARING...AND 
SNOW PACK...WILL BE AROUND 10 TO LOWER TEENS...AROUND 0 SOUTHERN 
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH 
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...IN THE 20S. 

WENT A LITTLE LOWER THAN ALL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE EXISTING STILL 
RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK. 

IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY REAL SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. 

THE NEXT SYSTEM...LOOKS TO BE A PHASING OF THE CURRENT GULF COAST
SYSTEM...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CURRENTLY AROUND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES IN UNUSUALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT TRACK AND MESO-SCALE FEATURES ARE NOT QUITE AS 
CLEAR CUT ESPECIALLY WHEN ONCE EXAMINES THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE 
VERSUS THE OTHER MAJOR WEATHER FORECASTING MODELS.    

THE GULF COAST SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED A LEGACY WINTER STORM 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ONCE AGAIN...DESPITE BEING A LA NINA WINTER 
(WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORS RIDGING IN THE SOUTHEAST...CERTAINLY 
NOT THE CASE THUS FAR THIS WINTER). 

THE H20 WATER LP DOES INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH 
THIS STORM IS WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES INTO A CONFLUENT ZONE 
DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOTS OF CONVECTION NOTED OFF THE GULF 
BEACHES OF WESTERN FLORIDA. MSAS INDICATED PRESSURE RISES TO THE LEE 
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM INDICATING SURFACE WEAKENING. HOWEVER...PRESSURE 
FALLS NOTED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS INDICATIVE THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD 
"JUMP" OFFSHORE LATER ON TODAY. IT WILL THEN AWAIT A MUCH STRONGER 
PIECE OF VORTICITY...RAPIDLY SPIRALING OFF A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW 
PARKED OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING.  

THIS NEW VORTICITY LOBE WILL JOIN FORCES WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE 
AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY OFF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS ADDED 
VORTICITY WILL BE LIKE A FUSE NEEDING TO BE RE-LIT. 

EVENTUALLY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE 
GULF STREAM AND THERMAL GRADIENT BAROCLINICITY LIGHTING THE FUSE. 
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY AND DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT SOME 
ENSUING CONVECTIVE...GENERATING CYCLOGENESIS. 

THUS FAR...THE NAM HAS LATCHED ONTO A PRETTY POTENT STORM TRACKING 
UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PERHAPS INDUCED BY CONVECTION 
BUILDING A RIDGE UPSTREAM TO THE EAST. THE FGEN IS QUITE AMAZING AS 
IT LINES UP INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONE FROM THE COAST...WITH GOOD 
DEFORMATION. THROUGH DUCTING...STRONG UPWARD MOTION UP TO 20 
MICROBARS/S IS EVIDENT RIGHT INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ALSO...THE 
BEST ASCENT CONTINUES TO BISECT THE -12 TO -18C ISOTHERM...THE 
FAVORABLE REGION FOR SNOW GROWTH. 

INDEED...IF THIS SCENARIO WORKS...LOOK OUT! WE COULD BE TALKING 
ABOUT A SNOWSTORM FOR THE RECORD BOOKS WITH A MESO-SCALE BOUND 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BLINDING SNOWFALL RATES > 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT 
TIMES AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDER SNOW. 

HOWEVER...BEFORE GETTING TOO EXCITED...THIS INWARD TUCK IS NOT 
SUPPORTED BY ANY OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE GEFS. IN 
FACT...THE GEFS ARE "CLUSTERED" UNDER A HALF INCH OF QPF FOR ALBANY  
WHICH WOULD IMPLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW OR VERY LOW END WARNING FOR 
THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE GFS/ENSEMBLES/ECMWF AND GEM ALL 
TRACK THE STORM CONSIDERABLY FURTHER EAST WELL EAST OF THE FIRE 
ISLAND/CAPE COD BENCHMARK. THIS HAS BEEN THE PREFERRED TRACK THUS 
FAR THIS WINTER. 

HAS THE NAM LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF CONVECTION BUILDING THE RIDGE 
UPSTREAM? QUITE POSSIBLY...BUT THE NAM IS OFTEN NOT AS RELIABLE MORE 
THAN 48 HOURS OUT DUE TO EXTREMELY SMALL SCALE RESOLUTION. 

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SET UP INCLUDES AN UPPER AIR LOW QUICKLY 
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE SURFACE STORM COMES UP 
ALONG OR OFF THE COAST. GIVEN THIS ANTICIPATED AND THE FACT THAT THE 
TRACK THIS WINTER FOR COASTALS HAS BEEN MORE EASTWARD (IE WHY 
COASTAL NEW JERSEY HAS HAD THE LION SHARE OF THE SNOW THIS WINTER 
THUS FAR...AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER INLAND)...WE ARE FAVORING THE MORE 
EASTWARD TRACK. ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER EVEN THE SREFS ARE NOT 
NEARLY AS CLUSTERED AS THE GEFS...ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH QPFS 
RANGING FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO WELL OVER THE INCH...SO NOT A 
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM TRACK. 

BOTTOM LINE...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH SUCH AN INSIDE TRACK. 
SINCE THIS EVENT MIGHT NOT UNFOLD UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WE DECIDED TO 
HOLD OFF ANY WATCHES AND WAIT TO SEE IF THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT 
WITH THE NAM (COMPARED TO THE OTHER MAJOR MODELS) LATER TODAY.  

AS WE HEAD CLOSER TO THE EVENT...IF THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS 
INWARD JAUNT IT SHOULD BE WEIGHED MORE INTO THE OVERALL THINKING. 
FOR NOW AGAIN...LEANED MORE WITH THE OTHER MODELS OFFERING A MORE 
PROGRESSIVE AND EASTWARD TRACKING STORM. 

HAVING SAID THAT...IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE COULD BE IN FOR 
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY...HIGH END ADVISORY 
(OR LOW WARNING SNOWFALL) ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND 
LESSER AMOUNTS THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE GETS FROM THE STORM. 
THIS STORM WILL BE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE LAST ONE (ABOUT 18 
HOURS).           

LIQUID SNOW TO WATER RATIOS LOOK TO START OFF A BIT HIGHER THAN THE 
LAST STORM (12:1) AS INITIALLY WE ARE IN THE WARM AIR PROCESS OF 
ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM PROGRESSES AND THE UPPER AIR 
LOW DYNAMICALLY COOLS THE COLUMN WE INCREASED THE RATIOS TO 15:1 BY 
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND UP TO 20:1 AS THE STORM DEPARTS LEAVING A 
TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.        

LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT 
AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO 
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION...THE WIND 
WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY...FIRST OVER THE HILLS...THEN INTO THE 
HUDSON VALLEY AND MOHAWK VALLEYS BY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THE 
WINDS DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH DURING THE SNOWSTORM FOR ANY MAJOR 
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...IF THE NAM IS RIGHT WITH ITS CLOSER TUCKING AND 
MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM...WIND COULD BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE.

THE OTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR WITH THIS STORM IS THE FACT THAT 
INITIALLY THERE WILL BE "BATTLE" OVER THE INLAND OHIO SURFACE STORM 
(STRONGER DYNAMICS ALOFT BUT WEAKER AT THE SURFACE) VERSUS THE 
WEAKER DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER COASTAL STORM THAT 
WILL BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER. IF THIS PROCESS TAKES LONGER THAN WE 
BELIEVE...THAT COULD IMPACT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOME. 

AT LEAST WE KNOW ALL SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION. 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN 
DURING THE WHOLE EVENT...MAINLY IN THE 20S. 

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH UPSLOPE PROCESSES WORKING ON ANY LOW LEVEL 
LEFTOVER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS.  

...STAY TUNED...     

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE NOR'EASTER CONTINUING TO HEAD OUT TO 
SEA. OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY FLAT WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FROM THE 
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE 
TROFS MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE REGION...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...THURSDAY 
THROUGH FRIDAY. 

A SURFACE HIGH AND SOME RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF DRY 
PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW AND 
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL 
BRING A SWATH OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 
NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT AND SWATH OF MOISTURE 
WILL DEPART THE REGION ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AND 
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT ATMOSPHERE TO 
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO FORECAST ONLY SNOW WITH THIS EVENT.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE 20 TO 30...FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 
20S...SATURDAY IN THE 20S...AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY. 

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO MID TEENS... 
FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 ABOVE...AND SATURDAY 
NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN 
A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES THROUGH 
MOST OF MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO 
THE REGION AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. 

MAINLY A VFR BKN/OVC CU/SC CLOUD DECK WILL BE OVER THE KGFL/KALB TAF 
SITES INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT KPOU. AT KALB 
THE CLOUD DECK WILL BE HOVERING RIGHT AT THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD OF 
3000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING...THEN VFR AFTER THAT. BY 
SUNSET AND BEYOND...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE MAINLY P6SM SKC. 

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT KALB/KPOU FOR THE REST OF THE 
NIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS AT KPOU...BUT 10 TO 12 KTS AT KALB 
WITH GUST TO OVER 20 KTS. AT KGFL THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. BY 14Z THE WEST TO NORTHWEST 
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES...WITH 
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS AT KGFL/KPOU...AND AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. 
AFTER 22Z-23Z...SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KTS AND 
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
LATE MON NT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX. 
TUE NGT-WED...MVFR/IFR...-SN/SN LIKELY WITH CHC +SN. 
THU-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF 
NEXT WEEK. 

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON MAIN STEM RIVERS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER ON TOP OF THE ICE MAY SLOW THE
RATE OF INCREASE IN ICE THICKNESS.

OUTSIDE OF SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...THE NEXT ROUND OF 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ONCE AGAIN 
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.   

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS/JPV