National Weather Service Raw Text Product

350 
FXUS62 KKEY 181903
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
303 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of 
today and into tonight. While a slight chance of showers persists 
through the TAF period, no mention is required due to low coverage
of shallow isolated showers. Near surface winds will be out of 
the east to southeast at 10 to 14 knots with occaisional gusts up 
to near 18 knots.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025
Surface analysis places an expansive area of high pressure
extending across the southern half of the North Atlantic, with its
latitudinal axis intersecting north-central Florida. This 
continues to place the Florida Keys in the southwestern quadrant 
of the high, with associated gentle to moderate east to southeast 
breezes. The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled an adiabatically 
well-mixed layer from the surface to around 950 mb, with a stable,
isothermal layer just above up to around 900 mb. Any isolated 
shower or thunderstorm activity today will likely be generated by
low speed convergence off the very warm ocean temperatures. The 
forecast yet again calls for slight rain and thunder chances for 
the balance of today, which is supported by nearby KAMX Doppler 
radar trends. No changes proposed to the inherited short-term 
forecast for this morning update cycle.

&&

.FORECAST... 
Issued at 504 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025
Late this weekend into early next week is when we could see the 
pattern finally start to change. Guidance has suggested a mid to 
upper level trough strengthening and deepening across the east US 
simultaneously as cut-off low moves westward over the Bahamas. 
This would result in the pinching of the high pressure that has 
been dominating our weather over the last week, bringing increased
moisture and instability to the Keys. While there still is some 
uncertainty in the chances of significant impacts for our area, 
PoPs do trend upward late this weekend. As it gets more clear in 
guidance, PoPs will be adjusted but for now stay at low chance. 
Stay tuned.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, Atlantic ridging will 
remain across the Florida Peninsula through Sunday. This will 
support moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes 
and isolated, fast- moving showers and thunderstorms at times. 
Winds will peak in the evening and overnight periods, while 
lulling during the day.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  91  82  91 /  20  30  20  30 
Marathon  82  88  82  88 /  20  30  20  30 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....BT

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