National Weather Service Raw Text Product

609 
FXUS62 KILM 181743
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
143 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid summertime weather will continue with 
temperatures above normal for most of the week. Frontal passage 
will lead to a slight uptick in rain chances late Thursday into 
Friday. Strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S. will
lead to a warming trend Sunday into next week, with a potential
for increased heat risk Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
CAMs are getting a bit more aggressive in depicting convection
mainly in coastal SC. Will raise POPs there slightly with the
mid morning update as greater instability is forecast in the
Grand Strand.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Bermuda high pressure extending into the area from the east will 
keep temperatures above normal today but ridging aloft should limit 
convection to isolated coverage.  It looks today like the main focus 
for storms will be the sea breeze.  Highs today will reach the lower 
to middle 90s but humidity values should remain low enough to 
preclude the need to a heat advisory as apparent temperatures should 
max out invof 100 degrees.  Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak mid level trough will move across the area 
Thursday into Friday temporarily suppressing the Bermuda Ridge. It 
appears the timing for good coverage of showers and thunderstorms is 
almost ideal (late Thursday afternoon and evening). In realty this is 
probably associated with the classic pre frontal trough. Pops have 
been increased to high chance and even likely in some cases to 
reflect this trend. Another round of convection is expected Friday 
afternoon moreso to the east of I-95 with the dissipating boundary. 
A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms resides across the area 
both days as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A more stable northwest flow will be in place initially 
for the extended transitioning to ridging of which the center will 
be across the Ohio Valley. Some residual moisture and the sea breeze 
warrant low chance pops along the coastal areas Saturday with a dry 
forecast thereafter. Don't be surprised if in reality there is more 
convective coverage however. Highs will be in the lower to middle 
90s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR should be the general rule at all terminals. The exception
will be some transient dips in CIG/VSBY at MYR and perhaps CRE
this afternoon. FM lines only needed to address diurnally driven
changes in wind.

Extended Outlook...A front will produce periods of sub-VFR in 
shwrs/tstms late Thurs into Fri. Otherwise, brief restrictions 
due to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Expect mainly SW winds of 10 to 15 KT to 
increase to 15 to 20 KT and continue into tonight. Seas will run
3 to 4 FT. 


Thursday through Sunday... A relatively strong southwest flow 
will develop Thursday ahead of the next system. Overall wind 
speeds have ticked up but remain in the lower end of a 20-25 
knot range. This increases the chances for a brief headline but 
still seemingly marginal at best. For the remainder of the 
period while there may be a very brief few hours of offshore 
flow early Saturday and Sunday the overall synoptic flow will 
continue with a southerly component.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MBB
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...SHK/31