National Weather Service Raw Text Product

375 
FXUS64 KFWD 181101
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
601 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance (20-30%) of thunderstorms late today and
  tonight mainly north of I-20. A few of these storms could 
  become severe.

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions are forecast into early next
  week with little chance for rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No major changes to the current forecast through tonight although
there are a few things to keep an eye on. A decaying complex of
thunderstorms is moving through southeast Oklahoma this morning
and has pushed an outflow boundary south of the Red River.
Scattered showers that had been ongoing within a weak warm
advection regime appear to be decaying rather quickly despite the
outflow boundary pushing southward. This is likely a combination
of weakening low level warm advection and increasing subsidence
from the decaying MCS. Nonetheless we'll have to watch where this
boundary sets up as we'll generally be weakly capped this
afternoon within a moderately unstable airmass. Another area of
concern is a band of elevated convection that has developed within
an area of high 900-700 mb theta-e across central Oklahoma. Weak
ascent from a mid level disturbance is the likely contributor to
this renewed convective development, but little of the high
resolution model guidance is indicative of this development. This
convection will also slide southeast with time but the assumption
is this will weaken though the morning coinciding with a weakening
low level jet. All of that to say that we currently have PoPs at
less than 10% through the early afternoon, but these may need to
be raised in a hurry if it becomes apparent that convection will
be sustained much farther south.

Better chances for storms will arrive late this afternoon and
evening when a weak frontal boundary pushes south toward the Red
River. Scattered storms will likely develop across south central
Oklahoma and may spread into parts of North Texas late this
evening. Areas along and north of I-20 will have the best chances
for storms this evening. Steep mid level lapse rates and modest
instability will support an isolated severe weather threat with
damaging winds being the primary threat.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Thursday Night/

Partly cloudy skies and warm conditions can be expected tonight as
temperatures slowly fall into the mid 70s by morning. A 40 kt low
level jet will transport moisture northward overnight and
widespread stratus is expected to develop and spread north by
morning. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms well off to our
northwest will also continue to weaken as it approaches our far
western counties.

Wednesday will be generally hot and humid with continued breezy
southerly winds, although not as strong as they were on Tuesday. A
broad trough will be spreading through the central CONUS with a
shortwave traversing the southern Plains through the afternoon.
This system will send a cold front southward toward the Red River
late in the day, but the strongest forcing for ascent is likely to
be moving off to the northeast prior to the boundary making it
into North Texas. We'll be watching the remnants of a complex of 
storms that is currently ongoing across parts of Oklahoma. The 
tail end of this cluster of storms may clip our northeast counties
through the midday hours. Additional scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are expected to develop mainly off to our northeast 
during the afternoon and we still expect some development to occur
back along the frontal boundary in North Texas later in the 
evening. The atmosphere will be strongly unstable by late 
afternoon and evening, but mid level capping will likely inhibit a
greater coverage/threat for severe weather in North Texas. 
Nonetheless, any storms that develop will have at least some low 
potential for damaging winds and/or hail. Coverage of storms still
looks like it'll be 20-30% through the late evening hours mainly 
north of I-20.

Any ongoing convection should lose steam through the overnight
hours Wednesday night with overnight lows dropping into the mid
70s. Mid level ridging will start to build back in over the
Southern Plains on Thursday with any convective chances in our
area confined to our far east/southeast counties.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 203 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025/
/Friday through Tuesday/

Mid level ridging will expand and encompass much of the central
and eastern CONUS this weekend into early next week. This will
effectively end precipitation chances for the region for the
foreseeable future. Hot and humid daily conditions are expected
with temperatures in the mid 90s and heat indices between 100-105
degrees each afternoon. By early next week the center of the ridge
axis will shift far enough eastward to allow some deeper east and
southeast flow into TX. This should result in an uptick in diurnal
sea breeze showers and thunderstorms to our southeast, some of
which will likely encroach on our Central TX counties. Rain
chances will remain less than 10% across the region Friday through
Tuesday.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Scattered showers primarily north and east of the major airports
continue to diminish in coverage this morning and the rest of the
morning/early afternoon looks to remain precipitation free,
although we'll have to watch an outflow boundary as it pushes
south to see if any isolated storms can develop along it.
Otherwise, intermittent MVFR cigs will continue for a few hours
this morning before scattering out over the next several hours.
There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms this evening across
parts of North Texas, but the best coverage should remain north
and west of the major airports. South winds around 15 kt will
continue through the day today and additional MVFR will likely
spread out of Central TX early Thursday morning.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  77  94  77  95 /   5  20   5   0   0 
Waco                92  76  93  75  93 /   5   0   5   0   0 
Paris               89  73  90  74  92 /  20  30  10   5   5 
Denton              94  74  94  75  96 /  10  20   5   0   0 
McKinney            92  76  93  76  94 /  10  20   5   0   5 
Dallas              94  77  95  78  96 /   5  20   5   0   0 
Terrell             92  75  92  74  92 /   5  10   5   5   0 
Corsicana           92  76  92  76  93 /   5   5   5   5   0 
Temple              94  75  94  74  94 /   0   0   5   0   5 
Mineral Wells       95  73  95  74  97 /   5  20   5   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$