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074 FXUS64 KOHX 132355 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 655 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 649 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Humid with medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend. Greatest rain chances each afternoon and early evening. - Generally low risk for severe weather, but some of the storms will contain torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. && .UPDATE... Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Most of the thunderstorm activity has exited off to the east at this time, but additional thunderstorms are developing in west TN and making their way east. Similar to last night, CAMs show this activity weakening as it makes its way across the TN River thanks to the loss of daytime heating. Still won't rule out isolated showers or storms overnight, but an overall dry and calm night is expected. Thunderstorm coverage increases again Saturday, but with weak shear and poor lapse rates, organized severe weather is not expected. But any thunderstorm will still be capable of frequent lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 A long wave ridge is set up over the central part of the country with an upper level low spinning over the plains. This upper level low is what will bring unsettle weather to Middle TN through the weekend. It will slowly push to the east today moving into the western part of the state by the end of the day. We are seeing a line of showers and thunderstorms east of the TN River. This line will continue to push east into the afternoon. We will also see additional scattered activity develop across the area. Meso Analysis is estimating 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE with the HREF forecasting 1000-2000+ j/kg later this afternoon. Bulk shear is marginal 20-25 knots. Lapse rates are rather poor and there is limited CAPE in the hail growth zone. Overall the set up for severe weather isn't great but can't rule out a few isolated stronger storms mainly from Nashville east, wind would be the main concern. Dew points have pushed into the upper 60s to lower 70s with PWATs pushing up to 2" in some areas. With all of this moisture heavy rain can be expected with any thunderstorms. The activity will be scattered and that will keep the threat for widespread flooding low but some localized flooding can't be ruled out. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s. Overall things dry out overnight but it will remain humid and that could bring a popup shower or storm but nothing widespread. The upper level low will be overhead on Saturday bringing widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening. Shear will be less tomorrow and we will keep the poor lapse rates in place. This will keep the severe threat very low. PWATs will remain very high and localized flooding will continue to be a concern. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 The upper level low will slowly be pushing more east on Sunday. We are still going to see widespread scattered activity area wide for the afternoon and evening but the higher chances will be in eastern areas. Shear and lapse rates will remain poor keeping the severe threat low. Weak troughing is then going to linger over Middle TN for the remainder of week. This will keep popup afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. It will be a high CAPE low shear environment. This will keep widespread severe threat low but could see some gusty winds with thunderstorms as they collapse on themselves. Highs will gradually warm back into the upper 80s to lower 90s by the middle of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Most of the ongoing activity is exiting off to our east. CSV and SRB will experience rain through the next hour or two. As we move into the overnight hours, the majority of the night looks to be mostly dry. MVFR clouds will build in near 12Z along with a wind shift out of the SSW between 6 to 9 kts with the approach of the upper low. VFR thresholds look to return late morning as pop up thunderstorm activity returns. Due to low confidence in the exact location of thunderstorm development, PROB30 groups are in the taf at each terminal during the late morning and afternoon hours tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 70 84 71 87 / 50 80 40 60 Clarksville 70 81 70 85 / 60 80 20 30 Crossville 65 80 65 79 / 70 90 70 90 Columbia 69 84 69 86 / 50 80 40 50 Cookeville 67 81 67 80 / 70 90 50 80 Jamestown 65 81 66 80 / 80 90 60 90 Lawrenceburg 68 83 68 85 / 60 80 50 60 Murfreesboro 69 85 69 86 / 50 80 40 70 Waverly 68 81 68 85 / 60 80 30 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Clements SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Baggett