National Weather Service Raw Text Product

164 
FXUS64 KLUB 130510
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1210 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1208 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

 - A few thunderstorms possible near the NM state line this
   evening.

 - Hotter than normal temperatures through the period.

 - A slight chance of late-day to early evening thunderstorms most
   days mainly eastern half of the area. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the upper level trough and 
associated low over portions of the Southern Plains, while the upper 
level ridge remains positioned over the Desert Southwest. Through 
Friday, the upper level ridge continue to inch closer to the region 
providing increased thickness values and heights across the area 
which should lead to much warmer temperatures to close out the end 
of the work week. 

As for the rest of today into tonight, there remains a slight chance 
for thunderstorms for areas near the NM/TX state line as upslope 
flow induces convection across the higher terrain in eastern New 
Mexico. However, given weak northwest flow aloft, confidence in 
storms reaching eastern portions of the CWA remains low. If storms 
can make it into the area we could see a few localized sub-severe 
wind gusts to 55 mph and small hail given DCAPE and MLCAPE values 
up to 1500 J/kg and decent mid level lapse rates. Otherwise, a quiet 
night is expected with mild overnight lows in the 60s area-wide 
under scattered cloud cover. As previously mentioned, the warming 
trend continues with southerly winds continuing to influence WAA 
advection into the area with 850mb temperatures around 21C to 25C 
suggesting highs on Friday afternoon in the mid to upper 90s. 
Although subsidence looks to remain locked in place and there looks 
to be little synoptic scale forcing, a few models continue to depict 
disturbances riding down the western side of the ridge across the 
region. Given the ample moisture expected to be in place across the 
region with a tongue of low-level theta-e stretched across the 
region into portions of eastern CO in addition to dewpoints progged 
in the 60s across much of the area may provide just enough moisture 
and lift for thunderstorms. Hi-resolution guidance continues to hint 
at there being two rounds of precipitation, the first round being 
terrain induced convection across eastern New Mexico tracking into 
portions of the southern South Plains around 3 to 4 PM, then an 
additional line of storms moving in from the Texas Panhandle just 
before midnight where storms will likely grow upscale into a 
convective system. Given convective temperatures should have no 
problem being reached by the afternoon, any evident capping 
inversion depicted by forecast soundings should quickly erode by the 
early afternoon and allow thunderstorms to begin to develop within a 
pretty unstable environment with MLCAPE values up to 2500 J/kg. Any 
storm that develops will have the potential of producing strong wind 
gusts and large hail given bulk shear magnitudes of 35 knots and 
steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Mid to upper level ridging is still projected to build northward out 
of northern Mexico this weekend. Increasing heights and thickness 
point to warming temperatures while subsidence suggests convection 
in New Mexico likely suppressed, and if not then flow would keep any 
storms west of the forecast area. Could see isolated late-day 
thunderstorms develop in the eastern half of the forecast area 
through the weekend on the eastern flank of the ridge as convective 
temperatures will be approached with the possibility of a little help 
from localized confluence or topographic effects. Meanwhile, the 
models are still inconsistent with the potential of a short wave 
trough breaking down the ridge, although now the GFS and ECMWF have 
flopped their positions in relation to the strength of the ridge 
with the Canadian holding firm. The NBM handles this fine with the 
greatest heat coming Monday and Tuesday and maintain small areas of 
slight chance thunder each afternoon and/or evening Tuesday and 
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail. Thunderstorms will be possible at PVW
and LBB at the end of this TAF cycle. The main hazard will be
strong winds in excess of 40 knots and brief heavy rainfall.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...51