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196 FXUS63 KBIS 120803 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 303 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near surface smoke will continue across North Dakota today. - Medium to high chances (40 to 80 percent) of showers across much of the area today through tonight, with a few thunderstorms possible across the south. - Cooler today and Friday, with highs in the 60s, before warming back up through the weekend. - Near daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 An approaching shortwave and associated surface low are present to our west, slowly moving east towards the Dakotas as the morning progresses. Showers have begun forming just to the south and west of our border, slowly making their way into our far southwestern counties. The current expectation is that chances for rain will increase and slowly expand northeastward through the day, covering most of our area by around 1 PM. Instability is expected to be minimal, with maybe around 300-400 J/kg across the far south through the day, so thunderstorm development is expected to be on the lower end. If thunderstorms develop, severe weather is unlikely. Breezy winds can be expected for much of the area as well, as temperatures cool and the surface pressure gradient tightens due to the strengthening of the aforementioned surface low moving to our south. Highs will generally be in the 60s today, with maybe some lower 70s in the north, being the areas impacted the least by this system. The other main concern today will be near surface smoke, which at the moment is still present for much of the area. The HRRR pushes the near surface smoke out as the precipitation moves in, though the confidence in this is still rather low. At the very least, smoke will stay lofted with continued hazy conditions and milky skies. This round of precipitation will move out of the area by late tonight. Overall QPF values still remain around a quarter to a half inch across much of the area, with lower totals across the north. Some local enhancements may drop some higher totals across the southern James River Valley as well. After this system moves through, flow aloft becomes generally zonal, with a slight southwesterly component, hopefully helping keep near surface smoke at bay for a while. Surface moisture return ramps up beginning Friday as well, along with temperatures beginning to warm back up towards normal, with highs generally in the 70s and possibly some lower 80s at times. Aloft, the pattern begins to pick up in activity, with various shortwaves passing through the flow, leading to enhanced lift and ample amounts of shear. As a result, we can expect a typical summertime pattern beginning this weekend and continuing into next week, with daily chances for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. The potential for severe weather also begins to increase a bit, with multiple long range severe guidance suggesting at least low probabilities for severe weather on various days, with the highest chances in the south. Confidence in receiving rainfall in general does remain decent, with chances for rain ranging anywhere from 30 to 70 percent on any given day. At the moment, it seems like both the greatest chances for rain overall as well as severe weather appear to be Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Mostly VFR visibilities are present this morning, though some denser smoke continue to linger across KMOT and KDIK, resulting in some MVFR visibilities. Through the morning, visibilities should improve, before a wave of precipitation begins moving into the area from the southwest. By midday, widespread MVFR ceilings and visibility due to rain showers are expected, with conditions deteriorating further towards the end of the TAF period, notably across the south where IFR ceilings will cover much of the area, impacting KBIS, KDIK, and KJMS. Breezy southeasterly winds can be expected, generally ranging from 15 to 20 kts sustained, with some gusts up to 25 kts, during the afternoon and evening hours. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Besson AVIATION...Besson