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171 FXUS63 KABR 120920 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 420 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated smoke remains over the region with an intermittent return of near surface smoke and visibility reductions through Friday. - Showers and thunderstorms expected through Friday morning, with the highest chances (60-90%) along and east of the Sisseton Hills Thursday afternoon and evening. - Heavy rain is possible with amounts of 1 to 2+", highest over far northeastern SD into west central MN through tonight. - There is a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening south of Hwy 12. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 420 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Rain and thunderstorms continue to expand north and east of two features: a warm front draped along the NE/SD border and a 700 mb low currently over eastern MT with some shortwave energy ejecting out ahead of it. For now, the thunderstorms are pretty weak. Monitoring for heavy rain and potential flooding at the moment as rain trains over south central SD and the I-90 corridor. This heavy rain threat will spread northeast this afternoon through tonight as the front creeps north and the 700 mb low moves into eastern ND/MN. Additionally, thunderstorms may be rather slow moving. PWATS remain over an inch along and east of the Coteau. As the frontal boundary stretches northeast from Chamberlain to Spink/Clark county by 21z, there will be a narrow corridor of enhanced CAPE around 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Outside of this corridor, CAPE has a sharp gradient and remains sub-optimal for severe storms. Shear, on the other hand, is abundant across the region at 45 to 60 kts. Even though SPC took out the tornado threat from its outlook, NAM keeps a narrow corridor of 1 to 4 STP on the boundary over Buffalo, Hand and Hyde counties. While perhaps not the primary concern, there is a non-zero chance of tornadoes along the frontal boundary. Lapse rate between 7 and 8 behind the frontal boundary along with the shear could lend themselves to some stronger winds. Winds also shift to the soutwest ahead of the boundary tonight along the Coteau, setting up some stronger downslope winds regardless of thunderstorm activity. This system exits/retreats on Friday with just some scattered activity remaining outside of sfc high pressure over the northeast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 420 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 An active weather pattern can be expected through the long term portion of the forecast, and perhaps into the following weekend. A persistent trough off the coast of British Columbia will cause a broad west coast trough through a majority of the long term. While upper level ridging does develop over the nation's midsection, the northern plains will likely experience several ridge riding shortwaves. Timing of the shortwave are often problematic as minor differences in model data causes a broadbrush approach to NBM pops. The ECMWF brings increasing instability into the CWA Sunday through Tuesday, which may support multiple rounds of strong storms. The deep layer shear may be lacking some on Sunday, but become more robust Monday and Tuesday. Our lack of severe weather so far this season appears to be over. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Smoke at MBG has brought visibility down to 4-6SM since shortly after 00Z, and at ABR shortly after 04Z. The latest VFR conditions remain initially, with areas of improvement as the chances of rain move in during the day Thursday. PIR and ATY will have showers nearby overnight, with dry weather through around 12Z. PROB30 or more steady TS are in the forecast for Thursday afternoon and evening, with the main concern for thunderstorm activity being at ATY after 19Z. Ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR and IFR by daybreak at ATY/MBG/PIR, and ABR after 15Z. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...06