National Weather Service Raw Text Product

311 
FXUS64 KSHV 120538
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1238 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

We have loaded in latest NBM guidance for the rest of tonight
behind our big afternoon push of convection. Patchy fog was added
to the mix mostly, with not much change to 12 hr pop as the upper
low over central TX this evening is only slowly edging this way. 
Until we get on the dry side, PoPs are the soup of the day or 
night as this case maybe. Much of the area received a good soaking
with no changes or additions to our going flood watch. The HRRR 
is showing spotty coverage around the midnight hour by 05Z. The 
climate runs through 1 am remaining on CST. So the final number 
may go up, but the 2.67 inches in the bucket is already a new 
daily record by an inch from back in 2000. The activity in 
Cherokee County is moving NE at 25 mph and may expand too, so we 
will send the SHV daily total with the overnight climate package.
The HRRR goes on the present another big push early in the day 
spreading into the heart of our Four-State area. We have a lot of
water added to our rivers, lakes and bayous. Updated crest info is
up to date and will be monitored through the flood watch time
frame and beyond into the much drier weekend. /24/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Widespread heavy rainfall is underway this afternoon, with active 
Flash Flood Warnings in progress. Video from broadcast media has 
shown significant flooding over highways in East Texas, with the 
heavy rainfall threat now expanding eastward as we head into the 
late afternoon and early evening. Louisiana DOT cameras are showing 
a similar image across the I-20 corridor in Shreveport with standing 
water just west of downtown near the WFO. Mesoanalysis across the 
ArkLaTex suggests high PWAT values at or just above 2". As the weak 
upper low begins to settle in across Central Texas this afternoon, 
and forcing continues to enhance across the region, the slow 
progression of the clusters of thunderstorms will only amplify the 
local flood threat over the next 24-36 hours. 

Hi-res and CAMs this afternoon continue to advertise that following 
this initial push of rain, a brief lull may occur before and just 
after midnight ahead of a secondary resurgence of heavy rainfall 
through the mid to late morning hours of Thursday. The slow 
progression of the rainfall combined with PWATs again pushing 2"+ 
will allow for another round of flood potential through the 
afternoon. While the greatest concern will turn to the saturated 
soils across East Texas to start, the flood threat will extend north 
and east into OK, SW Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana. Given the 
afternoon guidance, elected to expand the current Flood Watch north 
and east by a few counties and parishes to account for increasing 
totals. No changes were made to the expiration time. If trends 
continue to support higher totals across the far eastern parishes of 
the FA, another expansion will be needed in a future package. Bottom 
line, additional heavy rainfall will be the primary concern again 
tomorrow. 

By Thursday evening, the general consensus among much of the 
guidance is that the heavy rainfall should be north and east of 
the local region, with the only exception potentially being some 
wrap-around showers on the back side of the low across the I-30 
corridor through midnight. Hi-res does suggest that some isolated 
showers may develop down towards the I-20 corridor through sunrise
Friday, but confidence is mixed on how far south this 
materializes. It is to be expected that the influence of the 
heavy rainfall through the short term period will impact afternoon
high temperatures Thursday afternoon, where those who see heavy 
rainfall will have cooler temps when compared to those who stay 
drier longer.

KNAPP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

By Friday, the aforementioned trough will be strung out across the 
south and ArkLaTex vicinity as it gradually lifts northward. By late 
Friday afternoon/early evening, the center of the trough will be 
across the Ozarks, while deterministic guidance continues to 
advertise a swath of PWATs near 2", with daily rainfall chances 
into the weekend. Moisture embedded within the NW flow of the 
departing trough may support additional rainfall through the 
weekend ahead of a potential drying trend late Tuesday into 
Wednesday. PoPs through the end of the period will be primarily 
confined to the far eastern zones given the change in the synoptic
flow. 

The immediate start of the long term period will see the subtle 
influence of the present convection trends. That being said, 
temperatures will turn to more seasonal by the back half of the 
long term, with highs in the low 90's for many. With warming 
temperatures, and higher dew points in play by the end of the long
term, attention may need to turn to heat indices next week.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

For the 12/06Z TAFs, quiet conditions persist at area terminals 
at this hour with the exception of KSHV, where a cluster of 
thunderstorms is pushing northeast. Similarly to yesterday, a 
complex of storms and heavy rainfall will move into east Texas 
during the morning, overspreading the ArkLaTex through the course 
of the day. Southeast winds will continue through the night at
less than 5 kts, increasing to 5 to 10 kts sustained during the
day with gusts of up to 20 kts possible. 

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Heavy rainfall is ongoing this afternoon. While severe storms are
not anticipated, spotter assistance may be needed for flash
flooding across the local area. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  74  89  76 /  90  50  60  30 
MLU  90  73  90  73 /  80  50  60  30 
DEQ  78  68  83  69 /  90  60  70  50 
TXK  81  71  86  73 /  90  60  70  40 
ELD  84  68  87  69 /  80  50  60  40 
TYR  81  72  88  74 /  80  50  50  20 
GGG  81  71  88  73 /  90  50  60  30 
LFK  85  72  90  74 /  90  40  60  20 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-
     136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...26