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637 FXUS64 KLCH 120457 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1157 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Marginal to Slight risk of severe storms and excessive rainfall are outlined across the forecast today - We get a little break from the heat this week with several days of rain cooled air and cloud cover. - High rain chances will persist through the week and into this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 A partially broken line of storms is moving across SETX this afternoon with a few showers and storms ahead of the line with light to moderate showers behind it. Some of this activity has caused localized street flooding and small hail per received reports. The line will continue to break up as it progresses eastward, however the threat of flash flooding, hail, and damaging winds will continue until it passes. An upper cutoff low has established itself over the heart of TX, however it will slowly drift off, centering itself over MO by the end of the work week. Even after it moves off, we will still have a weakness aloft over the Gulf Coast. Along with this, a stationary boundary sits across TX, stretching to the East Coast. Thanks to persistent southerly flow and an already established moist airmass, we will not be lacking of moisture. Our 18Z UA (@1.96") and model derived PWATs are generally at or above the 90th percentile for early / mid June. Unfortunately this will spell more days of rain for the area, however the silver lining will temperatures barely reaching above climatological normals. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 The unsettled pattern established during the short term will persist through the extended period thanks to the weakness aloft remaining in place over the weekend. By the work week, we might see PoPs drop as an upper ridge over MX slowly moves eastward and another upper ridge over the Atlantic expands over the Gulf. This could allow for slightly higher temperatures in the early to mid next week time frame. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Light winds and mainly VFR CIGs continue through the mid-morning time frame. A bit of patchy fog may develop near AEX around sunrise, which looks to be the main exception. By mid/late morning, winds begin to pick up with occasional gusts expected. The next round of thunderstorms will then move west to east across the region nearing BPT my midday and exiting to our east by sunset. This line of storms is again expected to bring gusty winds, reductions in VIS, lower CIGs, and frequent lightning. Conditions again improve to VFR areawide after sunset tomorrow. 17 && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Light to occasionally modest onshore flow and low seas will persist through this week. Elevated thunderstorm chances will linger through the week and the upcoming weekend which may cause locally higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 90 71 88 72 / 80 50 70 20 LCH 90 75 88 77 / 70 50 60 30 LFT 89 75 89 75 / 80 40 60 20 BPT 89 76 88 77 / 70 50 60 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...17