National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCAE Product Timestamp: 2025-06-12 00:47 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KCAE Products for 12 Jun 2025 View All AFD Products for 12 Jun 2025 View As Image Download As Text
374 FXUS62 KCAE 120047 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 847 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening, as a weak frontal boundary remains stalled across the area. The region will then begin to transition to a more summerlike pattern late in the week, with less organized and more typical pulse storms. This pattern will persist into the weekend and through the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... - Waning convection through the evening gives way to quiet conditions and some low clouds/fog later tonight We are officially approaching the 7 straight days with convection mark as another day of widespread showers and storms transpired. These were primarily across the southern half of the area along and east of a prominent moisture and instability gradient that set up along the I20 corridor. These thunderstorms are quickly waning in coverage and intensity as the sun begins shining on the other side of the globe and the moon rises here. Passing clouds are expected tonight but the threat of low clouds is expected to increase after 3a or 4a. There may be some patchy fog as well, especially given the low level moisture that is hanging around. Lows should be in the upper 60s to around 70 most places tonight. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A Bermuda high will remain anchored off the Southeast Coast. Southerly return flow around this ridge will keep us in a summer- like pattern with seasonably hot and humid conditions as well as diurnally-driven showers and storms. A weak shortwave disturbance that can currently be seen on WV sat imagery over the FL panhandle will lift northeastward around the northwestern periphery of the ridge. This feature along with a stalled frontal boundary over the GA-SC piedmont may enhanced convective potential during the afternoon and evening on Thursday, especially along and north/west of the I-20 corridor. Farther south and east toward the coastal plain, coverage of showers and storms looks to be more isolated since lift will have to be primarily reliant on localized boundaries such as the sea-breeze (and even that may not be well defined with a strong enough gradient winds out of the south) and where convective inhibition underneath the ridge will be present. PoPs from the NBM were blended with the 12Z CAMs to highlight the greater coverage the farther north and west you go. Sided closely with NBM for Friday, yielding likely chances for showers and storms area wide during the afternoon and evening. Although the stalled front may be entirely washed out by Friday, the inland-propogating seabreeze and perhaps another subtle shortwave trough rotating northward around the backside of the ridge will provide a focus for the convection. Forecast high temperatures (upper 80s to around 90F) and peak heat indices (95-100F) are similar for both Thursday and Friday. Interestingly, the NBM probabilities show the greatest forecast spread out of the next week is on Thursday, but this is likely due to CAM members and the potential for convection during peak afternoon heating to prevent forecast highs from being realized. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The typical summer-time pattern continues through the long-term period thanks to the offshore ridge that will extend westward into the Gulf Coast states. The heat isn't expected to be unusual with forecast high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s actually right at climo for mid June. However, combined with the humidity - dewpoints in the mid 70s to occasionally upper 70s - will produce heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s each afternoon this weekend. A slight uptick in heat indices are forecast for the first half of the work week with peak heat indices in the 103-106F range for the Midlands and CSRA. If the forecast trends any higher, then the first Heat Advisory of the year would need to be considered. The pattern will also remain unsettled with diurnally-driven showers and storms. There is a potential for enhanced coverage of convection if/when shortwave disturbances track atop the ridge and move into the area during peak heating. At this point in time, it's difficult to time this. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are noted everywhere right now, with IFR and LIFR restrictions possible by 09z at all sites. Convection from earlier has begun to wane across the forecast area. Debris cloudiness is noted across the area but in general things are quieting down aviation wise. Guidance is much more aggressive with restrictions developing later on tonight as clearing develops behind the waning convection. HRRR, LAMP, and CONShort are all developing widespread stratus/fog after 09z, persisting through the mid morning hours. It won't be strongly forced by subsidence or anything so it shouldn't persist beyond 15z. However, given the amount of rain we have received over the last week or so, I think the LIFR forecasts by guidance are not far off from what will actually occur. The forecast becomes classic summer thereafter, with cumulus and scattered showers/storms developing tomorrow afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief flight restrictions are possible each day with typical summertime thunderstorms throughout this week and into the weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...